# Quiz 18: Time Series and Forecasting

Statistics

Q 1Q 1

One component of a time series is cyclical variation. An example of cyclical variation is the business cycle that consists of periods of prosperity followed by periods of recession,depression,and recovery.

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True False

True

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True False

False

Q 3Q 3

In the linear trend equation,the letter b is the average change in for each increase of one unit in t.

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True False

True

Q 4Q 4

In a linear trend equation,t is a coded value that corresponds with a time period in a time series.

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True False

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True False

Q 6Q 6

If the past data approximates a straight line,the equation used is = a + bt,where a is the Y-intercept and b is the slope of the line.

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True False

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True False

Q 8Q 8

In the final step,using the ratio-to-moving-average method,the total of the 12 modified means should theoretically be equal to 12.00 because the average of the 12 months is designated as 1.00.

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True False

Q 9Q 9

When estimating the specific seasonals for a monthly time series,the sum of the 12 modified means should theoretically be equal to 12.00 because the average of the 12 specific seasonals is designated as 1.00.

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True False

Q 10Q 10

An analysis of past seasonal fluctuations can be helpful in planning production for items such as toys,dolls,Easter eggs,and other holiday-oriented goods.

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True False

Q 11Q 11

Knowing the seasonal pattern in the form of indexes allows the retailer to deseasonalize sales. This is accomplished by dividing the actual sales for a month by the seasonal index for that month.

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True False

Q 12Q 12

A typical seasonal index of 103.7 for January indicates that sales for January are below the annual average.

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True False

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True False

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True False

Q 15Q 15

If the trend equation is = 10 + 100t,the forecasted value increases 100 units for the next time period,t.

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True False

Q 16Q 16

In a time series,economic periods of prosperity followed by recession are described as a(n)________.
A)secular trend
B)seasonal variation
C)cyclical variation
D)erratic variation

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Multiple Choice

Q 17Q 17

In a time series,high sales in the summer and low sales in the winter is called ________.
A)secular trend
B)seasonal variation
C)cyclical variation
D)variation

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Multiple Choice

Q 18Q 18

The merchants in Dallas,Texas,suffered flood damage in May 2003. Stores were closed for remodeling nearly two months. What is this type of variation in sales called?
A)Secular trend
B)Seasonal variation
C)Cyclical variation
D)Episodic variation

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Multiple Choice

Q 19Q 19

Because a ski resort does most of its business in the winter,what is the major source of variation that affects sales?
A)Secular trend
B)Seasonal variation
C)Cyclical effect
D)Episodic effects

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Multiple Choice

Q 20Q 20

The following linear trend equation was developed for annual sales from 2005 to 2009,with 2005 as the base year. = 500 + 60t (in thousand $). What are the estimated sales for 2010 (in thousand $)?
A)$500
B)$860
C)$1,040
D)$1,100

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Multiple Choice

Q 21Q 21

The following linear trend equation was developed for the annual sales of the Jordan Manufacturing Company. = 500 + 60t (in thousand $). At what rate are sales increasing?
A)$60,000 per year
B)$6,000 per month
C)$500,000 per year
D)$6,000 per year

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Multiple Choice

Q 22Q 22

If the least squares equation for sales data going from 2004 to 2008 is = 10 + 1.3t (in million $),what is the value of t and the forecast for 2010?
A)t = 6, = 17.8
B)t = 0, = 10.0
C)t = 7, = 19.1
D)t = 6, = 0.0

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Multiple Choice

Q 23Q 23

What is a in the least squares trend equation?
A)The intercept
B)The slope
C)The forecast
D)The time period

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Multiple Choice

Q 24Q 24

What is the general equation for the logarithmic trend equation to forecast Ŷ?
A)log a + log b(t)
B)log at log b(t)
C)at b(t)
D)ab(t)

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Multiple Choice

Q 25Q 25

If the exports (in million $)for the period 2006 through 2010 were $878,$892,$864,$870,and $912,respectively,what are these values called?
A)Moving average
B)Linear trend equation
C)Logarithmic trend equation
D)Time-series data

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Multiple Choice

Q 26Q 26

What is the long-term behavior of a variable over an extended period of time called?
A)Secular trend
B)Seasonal variation
C)Cyclical variation
D)Irregular or erratic variation

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Multiple Choice

Q 27Q 27

A time series is a collection of data that ________.
A)records past performance
B)records future performance
C)is limited to yearly data
D)is limited to quarterly data

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Multiple Choice

Q 28Q 28

Why are long-range predictions considered essential to managing a firm?
A)To develop plans for possible new plants
B)To have raw materials available for future demand
C)To develop plans for future financing
D)All of these answers are correct

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Multiple Choice

Q 29Q 29

Which one of the following is not a component of a time series?
A)Secular trend
B)Moving average
C)Seasonal variation
D)Irregular variation

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Multiple Choice

Q 30Q 30

What is the correct order of events in a typical business cycle?
A)Prosperity,recession,depression,and recovery
B)Depression,recovery,recession,and prosperity
C)Recovery,depression,prosperity,and recession
D)Recession,recovery,prosperity,and depression

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Multiple Choice

Q 31Q 31

If a major hurricane exerts an impact on the economy,that event could be classified as a(n)________.
A)secular trend
B)episodic variation
C)residual variation
D)seasonal variation

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Multiple Choice

Q 32Q 32

In a linear trend equation,which variable represents the average change in the dependent variable for every unit change in time?
A)a
B)b
C)t
D)

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Multiple Choice

Q 33Q 33

For a time series beginning with 1991 and extending up to 2010,which year would be coded with a 1 when using the coded method?
A)1989
B)1991
C)1992
D)2001

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Multiple Choice

Q 34Q 34

For an annual time series extending from 2000 through 2010,how many years would be lost in a three-year moving average?
A)Two at the start and one at the end
B)One at the start and one at the end
C)Two at the start and zero at the end
D)Zero at the start and two at the end

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Multiple Choice

Q 35Q 35

Given the trend equation, = 25 + 0.6t (base year = 2006),what would be the forecast value for 2010?
A)25
B)28
C)30
D)32

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Multiple Choice

Q 36Q 36

How can you describe the moving average method?
A)A method that smooths out a time series
B)A method to deseasonalize a time series
C)A technique that results in a trend-line equation
D)A method for computing the slope of a trend line

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Multiple Choice

Q 37Q 37

For a five-year moving average,how many values will be lost at the beginning and end of the time series?
A)Zero at the start and four at the end
B)Three at the start and three at the end
C)Two at the start and two at the end
D)Zero at the start and five at the end

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Multiple Choice

Q 38Q 38

A linear trend equation is used to represent time-series values when the data are changing by equal ________.
A)percents
B)proportions
C)amounts
D)both percents and proportions

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Multiple Choice

Q 39Q 39

If time-series data are plotted on graph paper having an arithmetic scale that increases or decreases by equal percents,what type of graph will it be?
A)Straight line
B)Linear
C)Curvilinear
D)Logarithmic

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Multiple Choice

Q 40Q 40

What is the logarithmic transformation for the equation = a + bt?
A)log a = S log /n
B)log = log a + log b(t)
C)log b = S(X log) /t2
D) = abt

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Multiple Choice

Q 41Q 41

Given a linear time-series trend = 5.2 + 3.1t,what is the forecast for 2010 if the time series started in 2003?
A)23.8
B)26.9
C)30.0
D)27.7

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Multiple Choice

Q 42Q 42

What time-series component was exemplified during the 1980s when the American economy enjoyed a period of prosperity?
A)Irregular
B)Cyclical
C)Trend
D)Seasonal

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Multiple Choice

Q 43Q 43

What is an advantage of the least squares method for determining a trend line equation?
A)It minimizes the error sum of squares.
B)It is subject to human error.
C)Forecasts have zero error.
D)It is easy to calculate by hand.

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Multiple Choice

Q 44Q 44

A logarithmic trend equation should be used when the time-series trend is ________.
A)changing in equal amounts
B)increasing by equal percentages
C)increasing in equal amounts
D)increasing or decreasing by equal percentages

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Multiple Choice

Q 45Q 45

If a quarterly seasonal index is 0.56,it implies that ________.
A)the quarter's sales are 56% above the yearly average
B)the quarter's sales are 56% of the year total sales
C)the other three quarter percentages will total 44%
D)the quarter's sales are 56% of the yearly average

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Multiple Choice

Q 46Q 46

For quarterly seasonal indexes,the total of the adjusted quarterly indexes will equal ________.
A)4.0
B)1.0
C)100%
D)a variable

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Multiple Choice

Q 47Q 47

The range of possible values for the Durbin-Watson statistic is ________.
A)any value
B)any value greater than zero
C)any value from zero to four inclusive
D)any value less than zero

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Multiple Choice

Q 48Q 48

To calculate quarterly typical seasonal indexes,how many periods are included in the ratio-to-moving-average method?
A)2
B)4
C)6
D)12

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Multiple Choice

Q 49Q 49

To calculate monthly typical seasonal indexes,how many periods are included in the ratio-to-moving-average method?
A)2
B)4
C)6
D)12

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Multiple Choice

Q 50Q 50

To calculate monthly typical seasonal indexes,after computing the ratio-to-moving averages,the averages must be ________.
A)divided by 12
B)multiplied by 12
C)summed and divided by 2
D)summed and divided by 12

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Multiple Choice

Q 51Q 51

To calculate monthly typical seasonal indexes,after computing the ratio-to-moving averages,the averages must be ________.
A)divided by 12
B)multiplied by 12
C)summed and divided by 12
D)centered

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Multiple Choice

Q 52Q 52

To calculate monthly typical seasonal indexes,a specific seasonal index must be computed for ________.
A)every month
B)every year
C)every quarter
D)every day

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Multiple Choice

Q 53Q 53

To calculate monthly typical seasonal indexes,the specific seasonal indexes must be averaged for ________.
A)every month
B)every year
C)every quarter
D)every day

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Multiple Choice

Q 54Q 54

For the third quarter,the sales are 1,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.10. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?
A)1,000
B)1,100
C)909
D)0.90

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Multiple Choice

Q 55Q 55

For the third quarter,the sales are 1,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.85. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?
A)1,176
B)1,000
C)850
D)0.15

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Multiple Choice

Q 56Q 56

For the third quarter,the sales are 1,500 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.15. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?
A)115%
B)15%
C)1,304
D)1,500

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Multiple Choice

Q 57Q 57

For the third quarter,the sales are 1,500 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.90. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?
A)0.10
B)90
C)1,400
D)1,667

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Multiple Choice

Q 58Q 58

The forecast for the third quarter is 1,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.10. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?
A)1,100
B)1,110
C)110
D)100

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Multiple Choice

Q 59Q 59

The forecast for the third quarter is 1,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.85. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?
A)1,085
B)850
C)985
D)1,015

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Multiple Choice

Q 60Q 60

The trend forecast equation is = 100 + 120t. The next forecast is for period 8. The typical seasonal index for period 8 is 1.15. What are the forecast sales for period 8?
A)1,060
B)1,219
C)960
D)1,075

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Multiple Choice

Q 61Q 61

The trend forecast equation is Ŷ = 120 + 100t. The next forecast is for period 8. The typical seasonal index for period 8 is 0.80. What are the forecast sales for period 8?
A)736
B)920
C)800
D)640

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Multiple Choice

Q 62Q 62

The Durbin-Watson statistic is used to analyze ________.
A)multicollinearity
B)homoscedasticity
C)autocorrelation
D)variance inflation

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Multiple Choice

Q 63Q 63

The Durbin-Watson statistic is based on the ________.
A)differences between successive residuals in a time series
B)differences between successive sales in a time series
C)differences between typical sales indexes
D)differences in time periods

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Multiple Choice

Q 64Q 64

For the third quarter,the sales are 2,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.15. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?
A)1,739
B)2,015
C)2,115
D)115

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Multiple Choice

Q 65Q 65

For the third quarter,the sales are 2,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.80. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?
A)1,600
B)2,000
C)2,080
D)2,500

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Multiple Choice

Q 66Q 66

For the third quarter,the sales are 2,500 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.20. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?
A)1,739
B)2,520
C)2,500
D)2,083

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Multiple Choice

Q 67Q 67

For the third quarter,the sales are 2,500 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.95. What are the deseasonalized sales for the quarter?
A)1,600
B)2,632
C)2,080
D)2,500

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Multiple Choice

Q 68Q 68

The forecast for the third quarter is 2,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.18. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?
A)2,000
B)2,018
C)2,118
D)2,360

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Multiple Choice

Q 69Q 69

The forecast for the third quarter is 2,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.79. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?
A)1,921
B)1,580
C)790
D)1,015

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Multiple Choice

Q 70Q 70

The trend forecast equation is = 100 + 120t. The next forecast is for period 11. The typical seasonal index for period 11 is 1.25. What are the forecast sales for period 11?
A)1,420
B)1,775
C)1,320
D)1,075

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Multiple Choice

Q 71Q 71

The trend forecast equation is = 120 + 100t. The next forecast is for period 11. The typical seasonal index for period 11 is 0.82. What are the forecast sales for period 11?
A)1,100
B)1,220
C)1,000
D)640

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Multiple Choice

Q 72Q 72

The forecast for the third quarter is 3,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 1.05. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?
A)3,000
B)3,005
C)3,150
D)2,360

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Multiple Choice

Q 73Q 73

The forecast for the third quarter is 3,000 units; the seasonal index for the quarter is 0.75. What are the seasonally adjusted sales for the quarter?
A)3,000
B)3,079
C)2,250
D)1,015

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Multiple Choice

Q 74Q 74

The trend forecast equation is = 50 + 420t. The next forecast is for period 10. The typical seasonal index for period 10 is 1.25. What are the forecast sales for period 10?
A)4,200
B)4,250
C)5,313
D)1,075

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Multiple Choice

Q 75Q 75

The trend forecast equation is = 50 + 420t. The next forecast is for period 10. The typical seasonal index for period 10 is 0.82. What are the forecast sales for period 10?
A)4,200
B)4,250
C)4,000
D)3,485

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Multiple Choice

Q 76Q 76

Which of the following components is not present in a time series?
A)Secular trend
B)Regular variation
C)Cyclical variation
D)Seasonal variation

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Multiple Choice

Q 77Q 77

The time-series component that exhibits fluctuations over more than a year in time above and below the secular trend is ________.
A)Irregular
B)Cyclical
C)Seasonal
D)A trend

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Multiple Choice

Q 78Q 78

For the following time series,you are given the 3-year moving total. The three-year moving average for 2004 is ________.
A)22
B)21
C)14.33
D)166

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Multiple Choice

Q 79Q 79

The following trend equation is for a manufacturer of women's purses (in millions of purses)based on six years of quarterly data. = 2.15 + 1.32t The following table provides the seasonal factors for each quarter. The seasonally adjusted forecast for the second quarter of the fifth year is ________.
A)25.91
B)15.35
C)29.15
D)6.8

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Multiple Choice

Q 80Q 80

Given the following trend equation based on five years of annual sales (in millions of dollars),beginning in 2005: = 4.53 + 1.54t The estimated value for 2008 is ________.
A)9.15
B)10.69
C)12.23
D)6.07

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Multiple Choice

Q 81Q 81

A collection of data recorded over a weekly,monthly,quarterly,or yearly time interval is known as ________.
A)a weighted moving average
B)a time series
C)a linear trend
D)seasonal variation

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Multiple Choice

Q 82Q 82

In the linear trend equation,Y = a + bt,the coefficient b represents ________.
A)any value of time that is selected
B)the Y-intercept of the trend line
C)the slope of the trend line
D)the projected value at some point in time

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Multiple Choice

Q 83Q 83

Which of the following statements about autocorrelation are true? I. Successive residuals are often correlated in time series because an event in one time period often influences the event in the next period.
II. If residuals are correlated,we can use r as the coefficient of correlation and conduct the common tests of hypothesis about regression coefficients.
III. A Durbin-Watson statistic d is used,instead of directly conducting a hypothesis test on r.
A)I only
B)II only
C)II and III
D)I and III

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Multiple Choice

Q 84Q 84

Consider a three-year moving average. The weights given to each period are ________.
A)different,with the oldest year receiving the most weight
B)the same
C)different,with the first year receiving the most weight
D)different,with the median year receiving the most weight

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Multiple Choice

Q 85Q 85

The preferred method used to smooth the trend in a time series is called a ________.
A)weighted moving average
B)moving average
C)linear trend
D)deseasonalized adjustment

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Multiple Choice