# Quiz 3: Forecasting

Statistics

Q 1Q 1

Forecasting techniques generally assume an existing causal system that will continue to exist in the future.

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True False

True

Q 2Q 2

For new products in a strong growth mode, a low alpha will minimize forecast errors when using exponential smoothing techniques.

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True False

False

Q 3Q 3

Once accepted by managers, forecasts should be held firm regardless of new input since many plans have been made using the original forecast.

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True False

False

Q 4Q 4

Forecasts for groups of items tend to be less accurate than forecasts for individual items because forecasts for individual items don't include as many influencing factors.

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True False

Q 5Q 5

Forecasts help managers both to plan the system itself and to provide valuable information for using the system.

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True False

Q 6Q 6

Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a shorter forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.

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True False

Q 7Q 7

When new products or services are introduced, focus forecasting models are an attractive option.

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True False

Q 8Q 8

The purpose of the forecast should be established first so that the level of detail, amount of resources, and accuracy level can be understood.

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True False

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True False

Q 10Q 10

Time-series techniques involve the identification of explanatory variables that can be used to predict future demand.

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True False

Q 11Q 11

A consumer survey is an easy and sure way to obtain accurate input from future customers since most people enjoy participating in surveys.

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True False

Q 12Q 12

The Delphi approach involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast.

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True False

Q 13Q 13

Exponential smoothing adds a percentage (called alpha)of the last period's forecast to estimate the next period's demand.

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True False

Q 14Q 14

The shorter the forecast period, the more accurately the forecasts tend to track what actually happens.

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True False

Q 15Q 15

Forecasting techniques that are based on time-series data assume that future values of the series will duplicate past values.

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True False

Q 16Q 16

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing uses double smoothing to add twice the forecast error to last period's actual demand.

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True False

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True False

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True False

Q 19Q 19

The naive forecast is limited in its application to series that reflect no trend or seasonality.

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True False

Q 20Q 20

The naive forecast can serve as a quick and easy standard of comparison against which to judge the cost and accuracy of other techniques.

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True False

Q 21Q 21

A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the data series when more data points are included in the average.

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True False

Q 22Q 22

In order to update a moving average forecast, the values of each data point in the average must be known.

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True False

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True False

Q 24Q 24

An advantage of a weighted moving average is that recent actual results can be given more importance than what occurred a while ago.

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True False

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True False

Q 26Q 26

A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3.

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True False

Q 27Q 27

The T in the model TAF = S + T represents the time dimension (which is usually expressed in weeks or months).

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True False

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True False

Q 29Q 29

An advantage of trend-adjusted exponential smoothing over the linear trend equation is its ability to adjust over time to changes in the trend.

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True False

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True False

Q 31Q 31

In order to compute seasonal relatives, the trend of past data must be computed or known, which means that for brand-new products this approach cannot be used.

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True False

Q 32Q 32

Removing the seasonal component from a data series (deseasonalizing)can be accomplished by dividing each data point by its appropriate seasonal relative.

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True False

Q 33Q 33

If a pattern appears when a dependent variable is plotted against time, one should use time series analysis instead of simple linear regression.

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True False

Q 34Q 34

Nonlinear and multiple regression procedures permit us to extend associative models to relationships that are nonlinear or involve more than one predictor variable.

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True False

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True False

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True False

Q 37Q 37

MAD is equal to the square root of MSE, which is why we calculate the easier MSE and then calculate the more difficult MAD.

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True False

Q 38Q 38

In exponential smoothing, an alpha of 1.0 will generate the same forecast that a naive forecast would yield.

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True False

Q 39Q 39

A forecast method is generally deemed to perform adequately when the errors exhibit an identifiable pattern.

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True False

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True False

Q 41Q 41

A tracking signal focuses on the ratio of cumulative forecast error to the corresponding value of MAD.

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True False

Q 42Q 42

The use of a control chart assumes that random errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero.

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True False

Q 43Q 43

Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

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True False

Q 44Q 44

Bias is measured by the ratio of the cumulative sum of forecast errors to the mean absolute deviation (MAD).

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True False

Q 45Q 45

Seasonal relatives can be used to deseasonalize data or incorporate seasonality in a forecast.

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True False

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True False

Q 47Q 47

Suppose a four-period weighted average is being used to forecast demand. Weights for the periods are as follows: w

_{t-4}= 0.1, w_{t-}_{3}= 0.2, w_{t-2}= 0.3 and w_{t-1}= 0.4. Demand observed in the previous four periods was as follows: A_{t-4}= 380, A_{t-3}= 410, A_{t-2}= 390, and A_{t-1}= 400. What will be the demand forecast for period t? A)402 B)397 C)399 D)393 E)403Free

Multiple Choice

Q 48Q 48

Suppose a three-period weighted average is being used to forecast demand. Weights for the periods are as follows: w

_{t-3}= 0.2, w_{t-2}= 0.3 and w_{t-1}= 0.5. Demand observed in the previous three periods was as follows: A_{t-3}= 2,200, A_{t-2}= 1,950, and A_{t-1}= 2,050. What will be the demand forecast for period t? A)2,000 B)2,095 C)1,980 D)2,050 E)1,875Free

Multiple Choice

Q 49Q 49

When choosing a forecasting technique, a critical trade-off that must be considered is that between:
A)time series and associative.
B)seasonality and cyclicality.
C)length and duration.
D)simplicity and complexity.
E)cost and accuracy.

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Multiple Choice

Q 50Q 50

The more novel a new product or service design is, the more forecasters have to rely on
A)subjective estimates.
B)seasonality.
C)cyclicality.
D)historical data.
E)smoothed variation.

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Multiple Choice

Q 51Q 51

Forecasts based on judgment and opinion do not include:
A)executive opinion.
B)salesperson opinion.
C)second opinions.
D)customer surveys.
E)Delphi methods.

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Multiple Choice

Q 52Q 52

Which of the following is/are a primary input into capacity, sales, and production planning?
A)product design
B)market share
C)ethics
D)globalization
E)demand forecasts

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Multiple Choice

Q 53Q 53

Which of the following features would not generally be considered common to all forecasts?
A)Assumption of a stable underlying causal system.
B)Actual results will differ somewhat from predicted values.
C)Historical data is available on which to base the forecast.
D)Forecasts for groups of items tend to be more accurate than forecasts for individual items.
E)Accuracy decreases as the time horizon increases.

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Multiple Choice

Q 54Q 54

Which of the following is not a step in the forecasting process?
A)Determine the purpose and level of detail required.
B)Eliminate all assumptions.
C)Establish a time horizon.
D)Select a forecasting model.
E)Monitor the forecast.

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Multiple Choice

Q 55Q 55

Minimizing the sum of the squared deviations around the line is called:
A)mean squared error technique.
B)mean absolute deviation.
C)double smoothing.
D)least squares estimation.
E)predictor regression.

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Multiple Choice

Q 56Q 56

The two general approaches to forecasting are:
A)mathematical and statistical.
B)qualitative and quantitative.
C)judgmental and qualitative.
D)historical and associative.
E)precise and approximation.

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Multiple Choice

Q 57Q 57

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?
A)executive opinions
B)sales force opinions
C)consumer surveys
D)the Delphi method
E)time series analysis

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Multiple Choice

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Multiple Choice

Q 59Q 59

Which of the following would be an advantage of using a sales force composite to develop a demand forecast?
A)The sales staff is least affected by changing customer needs.
B)The sales force can easily distinguish between customer desires and probable actions.
C)The sales staff is often aware of customers' future plans.
D)Salespeople are least likely to be influenced by recent events.
E)Salespeople are least likely to be biased by sales quotas.

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Multiple Choice

Q 60Q 60

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique?
A)associative forecast
B)consumer survey
C)series of questionnaires
D)developed in India
E)historical data

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Multiple Choice

Q 61Q 61

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:
A)sales force opinions.
B)consumer surveys.
C)the Delphi method.
D)time series analysis.
E)executive opinions.

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Multiple Choice

Q 62Q 62

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is to:
A)reduce the risk that one individual's opinion will prevail.
B)achieve a high degree of accuracy.
C)maintain accountability and responsibility.
D)be able to replicate results.
E)prevent hurt feelings.

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Multiple Choice

Q 63Q 63

Detecting nonrandomness in errors can be done using:
A)MSEs.
B)MAPs.
C)control charts.
D)correlation coefficients.
E)strategies.

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Multiple Choice

Q 64Q 64

Gradual, long-term movement in time series data is called:
A)seasonal variation.
B)cycles.
C)irregular variation.
D)trend.
E)random variation.

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Multiple Choice

Q 65Q 65

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is:
A)the duration of the repeating patterns.
B)the magnitude of the variation.
C)the ability to attribute the pattern to a cause.
D)the direction of the movement.
E)there are only four seasons but 30 cycles.

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Multiple Choice

Q 66Q 66

Averaging techniques are useful for:
A)distinguishing between random and nonrandom variations.
B)smoothing out fluctuations in time series.
C)eliminating historical data.
D)providing accuracy in forecasts.
E)average people.

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Multiple Choice

Q 67Q 67

Putting forecast errors into perspective is best done using
A)exponential smoothing.
B)MAPE.
C)linear decision rules.
D)MAD.
E)hindsight.

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Multiple Choice

Q 68Q 68

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is
A)a moving average forecast.
B)a naive forecast.
C)an exponentially smoothed forecast.
D)an associative forecast.
E)a regression analysis.

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Multiple Choice

Q 69Q 69

For the data given below, what would the naive forecast be for period 5?
A)58
B)62
C)59.5
D)61
E)cannot tell from the data given

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Multiple Choice

Q 70Q 70

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:
A)Immediately reflect changing patterns in the data.
B)Lead changes in the data.
C)Smooth variations in the data.
D)Operate independently of recent data.
E)Assist when organizations are relocating.

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Multiple Choice

Q 71Q 71

Which is not a characteristic of simple moving averages applied to time series data?
A)smoothes random variations in the data
B)weights each historical value equally
C)lags changes in the data
D)requires only last period's forecast and actual data
E)smoothes real variations in the data

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Multiple Choice

Q 72Q 72

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique, the number of data points in the average should be:
A)decreased.
B)increased.
C)multiplied by a larger alpha.
D)multiplied by a smaller alpha.
E)eliminated if the MAD is greater than the MSE.

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Multiple Choice

Q 73Q 73

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:
A)a naive forecast.
B)a simple moving average forecast.
C)a centered moving average forecast.
D)an exponentially smoothed forecast.
E)an associative forecast.

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Multiple Choice

Q 74Q 74

Which is not a characteristic of exponential smoothing?
A)smoothes random variations in the data
B)weights each historical value equally
C)has an easily altered weighting scheme
D)has minimal data storage requirements
E)smoothes real variations in the data

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Multiple Choice

Q 75Q 75

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?
A)0
B)0.01
C)0.1
D)0.5
E)1.0

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Multiple Choice

Q 76Q 76

Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand. The next forecast is 66.6, implying a smoothing constant, alpha, equal to:
A)0.01.
B)0.10.
C)0.15.
D)0.20.
E)0.60.

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Multiple Choice

Q 77Q 77

Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of 0.3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?
A)36.9
B)57.5
C)60.5
D)62.5
E)65.5

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Multiple Choice

Q 78Q 78

Given an actual demand of 105, a forecasted value of 97, and an alpha of 0.4, the simple exponential smoothing forecast for the next period would be:
A)80.8.
B)93.8.
C)100.2.
D)101.8.
E)108.2.

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Multiple Choice

Q 79Q 79

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?
A)0
B)0.01
C)0.05
D)0.10
E)0.15

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Multiple Choice

Q 80Q 80

A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Y

_{t}= 40,000 + 150t. What is the forecast for July if t = 0 in April of this year? A)40,450 B)40,600 C)42,100 D)42,250 E)42,400Free

Multiple Choice

Q 81Q 81

In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend-adjusted forecast consists of
A)an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor.
B)the most recent actual value and an estimated trend value.
C)the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor.
D)the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor.
E)a moving average and a trend factor.

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Multiple Choice

Q 82Q 82

In the additive model for seasonality, seasonality is expressed as a ______________ adjustment to the average; in the multiplicative model, seasonality is expressed as a __________ adjustment to the average.
A)quantity; percentage
B)percentage; quantity
C)quantity; quantity
D)percentage; percentage
E)qualitative; quantitative

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Multiple Choice

Q 83Q 83

Which technique is used in computing seasonal relatives?
A)double smoothing
B)Delphi
C)mean squared error
D)centered moving average
E)exponential smoothing

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Multiple Choice

Q 84Q 84

A persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater than or less than the actual values is called:
A)bias.
B)tracking.
C)control charting.
D)positive correlation.
E)linear regression.

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Multiple Choice

Q 85Q 85

Which of the following might be used to develop an estimate of the cyclical component of a forecast?
A)leading variable
B)mean squared error
C)Delphi technique
D)exponential smoothing
E)mean absolute deviation

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Multiple Choice

Q 86Q 86

The primary method for associative forecasting is:
A)sensitivity analysis.
B)regression analysis.
C)simple moving averages.
D)centered moving averages.
E)exponential smoothing.

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Multiple Choice

Q 87Q 87

Which term most closely relates to associative forecasting techniques?
A)time series data
B)expert opinions
C)Delphi technique
D)consumer survey
E)predictor variables

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Multiple Choice

Q 88Q 88

Which of the following corresponds to the predictor variable in simple linear regression?
A)regression coefficient
B)dependent variable
C)independent variable
D)predicted variable
E)demand coefficient

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Multiple Choice

Q 89Q 89

The mean absolute deviation is used to:
A)estimate the trend line.
B)eliminate forecast errors.
C)measure forecast accuracy.
D)seasonally adjust the forecast.
E)compute periodic forecast errors.

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Multiple Choice

Q 90Q 90

Given forecast errors of 4, 8, and −3, what is the mean absolute deviation?
A)4
B)3
C)5
D)6
E)12

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Multiple Choice

Q 91Q 91

Given forecast errors of 5, 0,−4, and 3, what is the mean absolute deviation?
A)4
B)3
C)2.5
D)2
E)1

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Multiple Choice

Q 92Q 92

Given forecast errors of 5, 0,−4, and 3, what is the tracking signal?
A)3
B)1.33
C)4
D)12
E)0.75

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Multiple Choice

Q 93Q 93

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?
A)mean absolute deviation
B)mean squared error
C)tracking signal
D)bias
E)MAPE

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Multiple Choice

Q 94Q 94

The two most important factors in choosing a forecasting technique are:
A)cost and time horizon.
B)accuracy and time horizon.
C)cost and accuracy.
D)quantity and quality.
E)objective and subjective components.

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Multiple Choice

Q 95Q 95

The degree of management involvement in short-range forecasts is:
A)none.
B)low.
C)moderate.
D)high.
E)total.

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Multiple Choice

Q 96Q 96

Which of the following is not necessarily an element of a good forecast?
A)estimate of accuracy
B)timeliness
C)meaningful units
D)low cost
E)written

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Multiple Choice

Q 97Q 97

Forecasting techniques generally assume:
A)the absence of randomness.
B)continuity of some underlying causal system.
C)a linear relationship between time and demand.
D)accuracy that increases the farther out in time the forecast projects.
E)accuracy that is better when individual items, rather than groups of items, are being considered.

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Multiple Choice

Q 98Q 98

A managerial approach toward forecasting which seeks to actively influence demand is:
A)reactive.
B)proactive.
C)influential.
D)protracted.
E)retroactive.

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Multiple Choice

Q 99Q 99

Customer service levels can be improved by better:
A)mission statements.
B)control charting.
C)short-term forecast accuracy.
D)exponential smoothing.
E)customer selection.

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Multiple Choice

Q 100Q 100

Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6?
A)67
B)115
C)69
D)68
E)68.67

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Multiple Choice

Q 101Q 101

Given the following historical data and weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2, what is the three-period moving average forecast for period 5?
A)144.20
B)144.80
C)144.67
D)143.00
E)144.00

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Multiple Choice

Q 102Q 102

Use of simple linear regression analysis assumes that:
A)variations around the line are nonrandom.
B)deviations around the line are normally distributed.
C)predictions can easily be made beyond the range of observed values of the predictor variable.
D)all possible predictor variables are included in the model.
E)the variance of error terms (deviations)varies directly with the predictor variable.

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Multiple Choice

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Multiple Choice

Q 104Q 104

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data:
What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?
A)18,750
B)19,500
C)21,000
D)22,000
E)22,800

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Multiple Choice

Q 105Q 105

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data:
What is the forecast for this year using a four-year simple moving average?
A)18,750
B)19,500
C)21,000
D)22,650
E)22,800

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Multiple Choice

Q 106Q 106

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data:
What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5, if the forecast for two years ago was 16,000?
A)18,750
B)19,500
C)21,000
D)22,650
E)22,800

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Multiple Choice

Q 107Q 107

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data:
What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?
A)18,750
B)19,500
C)21,000
D)22,650
E)22,800

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Multiple Choice

Q 108Q 108

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data:
What is the forecast for this year using trend-adjusted (double)smoothing with alpha = 0.05 and beta = 0.3, if the forecast for last year was 21,000, the forecast for two years ago was 19,000, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 1,500?
A)18,750
B)19,500
C)21,000
D)22,650
E)22,800

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Multiple Choice

Q 109Q 109

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data:
What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?
A)100
B)200
C)300
D)500
E)600

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Multiple Choice

Q 110Q 110

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data:
What is the forecast for this year using a three-year weighted moving average with weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2?
A)163
B)180
C)300
D)420
E)510

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Multiple Choice

Q 111Q 111

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data:
What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.4, if the forecast for two years ago was 750?
A)163
B)180
C)300
D)420
E)510

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Multiple Choice

Q 112Q 112

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data:
What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?
A)163
B)180
C)300
D)420
E)510

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Multiple Choice

Q 113Q 113

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data:
What is the forecast for this year using trend-adjusted (double)smoothing with alpha = 0.3 and beta = 0.2, if the forecast for last year was 310, the forecast for two years ago was 430, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was −150?
A)162.4
B)180.3
C)301.4
D)403.2
E)510.0

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Multiple Choice

Q 114Q 114

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:
What is this week's forecast using the naive approach?
A)35
B)50
C)52
D)65
E)78

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Multiple Choice

Q 115Q 115

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:
What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average?
A)49
B)50
C)52
D)65
E)78

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Multiple Choice

Q 116Q 116

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:
What is this week's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.2, if the forecast for two weeks ago was 90?
A)49
B)50
C)52
D)65
E)78

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Multiple Choice

Q 117Q 117

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:
What is this week's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?
A)49
B)50
C)52
D)65
E)78

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Multiple Choice

Q 118Q 118

Professor Very Busy needs to allocate time next week to include time for office hours. He needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. He has gathered the following data:
What is this week's forecast using trend-adjusted (double)smoothing with alpha = 0.5 and beta = 0.1, if the forecast for last week was 65, the forecast for two weeks ago was 75, and the trend estimate for last week's forecast was −5?
A)49.3
B)50.6
C)52.0
D)65.4
E)78.7

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Multiple Choice

Q 119Q 119

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data:
What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?
A)22,000
B)20,000
C)18,000
D)15,000
E)12,000

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Multiple Choice

Q 120Q 120

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data:
What is this year's forecast using a two-year weighted moving average with weights of 0.7 and 0.3?
A)19,400
B)18,600
C)19,000
D)11,400
E)10,600

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Multiple Choice

Q 121Q 121

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data:
What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.2, if last year's smoothed forecast was 15,000?
A)20,000
B)19,000
C)17,500
D)16,000
E)15,000

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Multiple Choice

Q 122Q 122

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data:
What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?
A)20,000
B)21,000
C)22,000
D)23,000
E)24,000

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Multiple Choice

Q 123Q 123

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data:
The previous trend line had predicted 18,500 for two years ago, and 19,700 for last year. What was the mean absolute deviation for these forecasts?
A)100
B)200
C)400
D)500
E)800

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Multiple Choice

Q 124Q 124

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data:
What is this year's forecast using the naive approach?
A)2,000
B)2,200
C)2,800
D)3,000
E)3,200

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Multiple Choice

Q 125Q 125

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data:
What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?
A)2,667
B)2,600
C)2,500
D)2,400
E)2,333

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Multiple Choice

Q 126Q 126

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data:
What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.4, if last year's smoothed forecast was 2,600?
A)2,600
B)2,760
C)2,800
D)3,840
E)3,000

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Multiple Choice

Q 127Q 127

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data:
What is the annual rate of change (slope)of the least squares trend line for these data?
A)0
B)200
C)400
D)180
E)360

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Multiple Choice

Q 128Q 128

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data:
What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?
A)3,600
B)3,500
C)3,400
D)3,300
E)3,200

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Multiple Choice

Q 129Q 129

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's)demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data:
What is this month's forecast using the naive approach?
A)100
B)160
C)130
D)140
E)120

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Multiple Choice

Q 130Q 130

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's)demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data:
What is this month's forecast using a four-month weighted moving average with weights of 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1?
A)120
B)129
C)141
D)135
E)140

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Multiple Choice

Q 131Q 131

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's)demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data:
What is this month's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.2, if August's forecast was 145?
A)144
B)140
C)142
D)148
E)163

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Multiple Choice

Q 132Q 132

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's)demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data:
What is the monthly rate of change (slope)of the least squares trend line for these data?
A)320
B)102
C)8
D)−0.4
E)−8

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Multiple Choice

Q 133Q 133

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's)demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data:
What is this month's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?
A)1,250
B)128.6
C)102
D)158
E)164

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Multiple Choice

Q 134Q 134

Which of the following mechanisms for enhancing profitability is most likely to result from improving short-term forecast performance?
A)increased inventory
B)reduced flexibility
C)higher-quality products
D)greater customer satisfaction
E)greater seasonality

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Multiple Choice

Q 135Q 135

Which of the following changes would tend to shorten the time frame for short-term forecasting?
A)bringing greater variety into the product mix
B)increasing the flexibility of the production system
C)ordering fewer weather-sensitive items
D)adding more special-purpose equipment
E)investing in the production system to make it more task-specific

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Multiple Choice

Q 136Q 136

Which of the following helps improve supply chain forecasting performance?
A)contracts that require supply chain members to formulate long-term forecasts
B)penalties for supply chain members that adjust forecasts
C)sharing forecasts or demand data across the supply chain
D)increasing lead times for critical supply chain members
E)increasing the number of suppliers at critical junctures in the supply chain

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Multiple Choice

Q 137Q 137

Which of the following would tend to decrease forecast accuracy?
A)a reduction in demand variability
B)a shortening of the forecast time horizon
C)an attempt to forecast demand for a group of similar items rather than an individual item
D)a change in the underlying causal system
E)an increase in the flexibility of the production system

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Multiple Choice

Q 138Q 138

Which of the following is the most valuable piece of information the sales force can bring into forecasting situations?
A)what customers are most likely to do in the future
B)what customers most want to do in the future
C)what plans customers are considering for the future
D)whether customers are satisfied or dissatisfied with their performance in the past
E)what the salesperson's appropriate sales quota should be

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Multiple Choice

Q 139Q 139

Which of the following is not an example of forecasts being used in a business organization?
A)how the organization should be structured
B)equipment replacement needs
C)timing and amount of funding needs
D)hiring activities
E)pricing and promotion

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Multiple Choice

Q 140Q 140

Inaccurate _____ can lead to excess and/or shortages throughout the organization and the supply chain.
A)planning
B)forecasts
C)ordering
D)capacity
E)deliveries

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Multiple Choice

Q 141Q 141

Which forecast uses opinions gathered from consumer surveys, managers, sales staff, experts, and executives?
A)associative
B)time-series
C)judgmental
D)capacity
E)quantitative

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Multiple Choice

Q 142Q 142

Data in a time-ordered sequence will not be in measurements of?
A)demand
B)accidents
C)productivity
D)months
E)consumer price index

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Multiple Choice

Q 143Q 143

The owner of Yummy Yummy Catering needs to ensure she has enough employees scheduled for the upcoming week to assist with cooking. She needs to forecast the number of clients that will book her services. She has the following historical data:
What is this week's forecast using a three-week simple moving average?
A)51
B)29
C)48
D)44
E)37

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Multiple Choice

Q 144Q 144

The owner of Yummy Yummy Catering needs to ensure she has enough employees scheduled for the upcoming week to assist with cooking. She needs to forecast the number of clients that will book her services. She has the following historical data:
What is the forecast for this week using weighted moving average with weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2?
A)51
B)29
C)48
D)40
E)37

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Multiple Choice