Question 1

Suppose that you are working as an industrial/organizational psychologist for a company.You've determined that the employees tend to be too confident about sales decisions that later turn out to be unwise.Remembering what you learned in your cognitive psychology course,your wisest decision would be to

Accepted Answer

The crystal-ball technique involves imagining that a decision has failed and then working backward to determine why it failed. This can help reduce overconfidence by encouraging consideration of potential pitfalls and alternative outcomes.

Question 2

At midterm,a college determines that 300 of its students are at risk for suspension this semester.Its tutoring center argues that,with a series of targeted emails encouraging students to come in for help,it can promise to certainly save 100 of those students from suspension.However,an external firm approaches the college with an offer to start a new program,with a 1/3 chance of preventing all 300 students from being suspended (and a 2/3 chance of saving none of these students).Under which circumstances is the college most likely to hire the external firm?

Accepted Answer

When the focus is on the number of students who will be suspended, the external firm's program appears more appealing because it offers a chance to prevent all suspensions, despite the risk of saving none.

Question 3

Imagine that your professor is discussing the prevalence of psychological disorders in the general population,and he says,"A study conducted in 2012 estimated that about 11% of the population has a psychological disorder at any one time." If you were to estimate a confidence interval,based on this number-11%-you would be most likely

Accepted Answer

The most likely mistake would be to rely too heavily on the anchor of 11% and not adjust it enough. When estimating a confidence interval, it's important not to be anchored to a single number but to consider a range of values that could reasonably be expected. Adjusting the anchor appropriately would lead to a more accurate estimation of the confidence interval. The other options, such as confirmation bias or decision frames, are not directly related to the process of estimating a confidence interval. The availability heuristic could also be a potential bias, but it's not the most likely mistake in this scenario.

Question 4

Suppose that a politician is drafting her position paper on the educational situation in her district.She is trying to decide whether she should say,"If we adopt Plan A,we estimate that 10% of our students will drop out of high school before graduating." Alternately,she might say,"If we adopt Plan A,we estimate that 90% of our students will graduate from high school." She would probably find that her audience responds differently to these two versions of her talk,because of

Accepted Answer

The framing effect occurs when the way information is presented affects the way it is perceived by the audience. In this case, presenting the information as a potential positive outcome (90% graduation rate) versus a potential negative outcome (10% dropout rate) will likely elicit different reactions and attitudes from the audience towards the proposed plan. This demonstrates the power of framing in shaping people's perceptions and decision-making.

Question 5

According to the research on prospect theory,

Accepted Answer

According to the research on prospect theory, when individuals are faced with a situation involving potential losses, they tend to seek risks in order to avoid the loss. This is known as the "loss aversion" principle, which suggests that people are more sensitive to potential losses than potential gains.

Question 6

According to the framing effect,

Accepted Answer

The framing effect refers to the way in which a question is asked or information is presented, which can influence people's decisions. Therefore, choice D is the correct option.

Question 7

Suppose that a student named John is asked to judge how many students are enrolled in his introductory biology class.He replies,"about 100….well,maybe between about 90 and 110." Based on the discussion of confidence intervals,you predict that

Accepted Answer

John's estimate of the number of students enrolled in the class seems to have been influenced by the initial anchor of 100 students. Since he provided a range of approximately 10 students (between 90 and 110), this suggests that he did not consider a larger range that would come with a wider confidence interval.

Question 8

Researchers such as Gerd Gigerenzer argue that people create a wide variety of heuristics that generally help them make adaptive decisions in the real world-a point of view referred to as

Accepted Answer

The point of view described in the question is that people create heuristics that generally help them make adaptive decisions, which aligns with the concept of ecological rationality, as proposed by Gerd Gigerenzer. Thus, the correct choice is D.

Question 9

The research on the framing effect suggests that

Accepted Answer

The framing effect refers to the phenomenon where the wording or phrasing of a question or decision problem influences the resulting decision. Therefore, D is the most relevant option, stating that individuals are influenced by the wording of a question and background information. A, B, and C are incorrect as they refer to different cognitive biases or effects.

Question 10

Because of a recently passed law,in Oregon,everyone who gets a driver's license or state identification card is automatically registered to vote; they must choose to "opt out" if they do not wish to be registered.In most states,a person must take steps to register to vote.In the future,if voting statistics show that significantly more Oregonians than other U.S.citizens are registered to vote,we might say that this is a good example of the _______ heuristic in action.

Accepted Answer

The recently passed law in Oregon utilizes a default heuristic, where individuals are automatically registered to vote unless they choose to opt-out. This reduces the effort and cost required for individuals to register, increasing the likelihood of higher voter registration rates in Oregon compared to other states.

Question 11

Jeff is concerned that the framing effect may be influencing his decision to study abroad next semester.According to Chapter 12,an effective way to correct for the framing effect is to

Accepted Answer

The answer of Jeff is concerned that the framing effect...

Question 12

According to the research on the reasons for overconfidence,

Accepted Answer

Research suggests that people often have trouble recalling the alternate hypotheses that could explain a situation, leading them to be overconfident in their conclusions.

Question 13

Suppose that you hear someone say,"I don't care how many days I am sick; I just care how many days I am well." Which of the following concepts from decision making would be most relevant to this statement?

Accepted Answer

The statement reflects a focus on the positive outcome of being well rather than the negative outcome of being sick. This is a framing effect, where the way information is presented (i.e., framed) can influence decision making. In this case, the framing is shifting the focus from the negative to the positive outcome.

Question 14

In the hindsight bias,

Accepted Answer

The hindsight bias refers to the tendency to overestimate one's ability to have predicted an outcome after the outcome is known. Therefore, people are likely to believe that they could have predicted an event with greater accuracy than they actually could have. Option D directly states this tendency and is, therefore, the correct answer.

Question 15

Which of the following students provides the most accurate information about the research on overconfidence?

Accepted Answer

Solange accurately states that overconfidence applies to many cognitive tasks beyond just decision making. This is supported by research on the topic.

Option B is incorrect as research has shown that overconfidence can vary depending on the type of questions asked.

Option C is also incorrect. While there may be some similarities between experts and novices in terms of overconfidence, research shows that expertise can lead to reduced overconfidence in certain areas.

Option D is partially correct. Illusory correlations have been proposed as an explanation for the overconfidence effect, but it is not the only explanation and research on the topic is ongoing.

Question 16

Suppose you have a friend who is just beginning college,and she plans to go to school half-time.She estimates that she will earn her bachelor's degree in about 7 years,rather than 8 years.It is most likely that she

Accepted Answer

The friend is falling victim to the planning fallacy, which is the tendency to underestimate the time, costs, and resources required to complete a task, and overestimate one's own abilities to achieve it. The friend's estimate seems to be overly optimistic and does not take into account potential obstacles or delays that could prolong the time it takes to earn a bachelor's degree.

Question 17

12-100.Suppose that you are watching television just after a Congressional election,and your favorite candidate has won-although the election was close.You say to a friend,"Well,I was really quite confident that he would win." This might be an example of

Accepted Answer

The statement "I was really quite confident that he would win" suggests that the person experienced the hindsight bias, which is the tendency to believe, after an outcome is known, that one would have predicted or expected the outcome. The person is overestimating their ability to predict the outcome of the election, despite it being a close one. The other options do not fit the scenario described.

Question 18

Suppose that you are having a serious argument with a friend,and you are convinced that your own perspective is correct.According to the discussion in Chapter 12,this situation is an example of

Accepted Answer

The situation described is an example of my-side bias, which refers to the tendency to favor one's own perspective and information over that of others during an argument or discussion. It can lead to a lack of consideration of different viewpoints and hinder effective communication and problem-solving.

Question 19

According to the research on overconfidence,

Accepted Answer

Research on overconfidence has shown that politicians are not immune to overconfidence bias like other people. In fact, politicians are often overconfident in their abilities, predictions, and decisions.

Question 20

If a researcher wants to conduct a study on the framing effect,which of the following would be the most likely topic for the study?

Accepted Answer

The framing effect refers to the way in which information is presented or framed can influence decision-making. Choice D specifically relates to the framing effect as it presents a scenario with two different ways to frame the same price reduction.

Quiz 12: Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making