Question 1

According to the discussion of representativeness,

Accepted Answer

People often rely on the representativeness heuristic, which leads them to expect that random-looking outcomes are more likely than orderly-looking ones, even when both are equally probable.

Question 2

Heuristics in decision making

Accepted Answer

Heuristics are mental shortcuts that people use to quickly make decisions without fully analyzing all the available information. While they can be helpful in some situations, they can also lead to errors or biases when applied inappropriately. Therefore, A is the correct choice as heuristics may become a liability when they are not used effectively. B, C, and D are incorrect as heuristics do not always lead to correct decisions, they are not mathematical formulas, and they can be helpful in decision-making situations when used appropriately.

Question 3

Which of the following students' statements best summarizes the research on the belief-bias effect?

Accepted Answer

The belief-bias effect demonstrates how people's existing beliefs can influence their logical reasoning, leading them to accept conclusions that align with their beliefs rather than those that are logically valid. Petra's statement correctly highlights the role of top-down processing in this effect.

Question 4

An important difference between reasoning and decision making is that

Accepted Answer

Reasoning tasks often involve using established rules or logic to reach a conclusion, whereas decision-making tasks involve selecting an option from a set of alternatives based on individual preferences or values, and may not always have clear rules or logical solutions.

Question 5

Cynthia has developed an informal hypothesis: "If a student is a psychology major,then that student favors gun control." She questions 20 psychology majors and all 20 do favor gun control.However,she does not pursue additional information.Specifically,she does not seek out people who oppose gun control to determine whether they are psychology majors.From the perspective of deductive reasoning,Cynthia has

Accepted Answer

Cynthia has only gathered evidence that supports her hypothesis and has not looked for evidence that contradicts it, demonstrating confirmation bias. This can lead to faulty conclusions and hinder the process of deductive reasoning, which involves considering all possible outcomes based on available evidence.

Question 6

According to the discussion of the confirmation bias in deductive reasoning,

Accepted Answer

The discussion of the confirmation bias in deductive reasoning indicates that people tend to prefer to demonstrate that a hypothesis is true, rather than to demonstrate that it is false. This can lead to a tendency to seek out evidence that confirms their beliefs and ignore evidence that contradicts them, which can result in errors in reasoning.

Question 7

An important difference between reasoning and decision making is that in reasoning,

Accepted Answer

Reasoning involves the use of rules, principles, and logical thinking to arrive at a conclusion based on given premises. These rules are well-established and tested, making it possible to determine whether our conclusions are correct or not. In decision making, however, there may not be clear rules or guidelines to follow, and the outcome may be uncertain or based on personal preferences.

Question 8

A family has three children,all of whom are boys.Everyone predicts that their next child will be a girl.Which heuristic does this demonstrate?

Accepted Answer

The family's prediction is based on the belief that having two or more children of the same gender increases the likelihood of the next child being of the opposite gender, which is a common application of the representativeness heuristic. It involves making judgments based on how well something matches a prototype or stereotype, rather than on statistical probability.

Question 9

Suppose that you are assigning eight college students to two committees.By chance,one committee has four students from the social sciences,and the other has four students from the humanities.If people protest that this arrangement does not seem to be random,they are following

Accepted Answer

The protest that the arrangement is not random is an example of the representativeness heuristic, which is the tendency to judge the likelihood of an event based on how closely it resembles other events or prototypes that we know about. In this case, the protest is based on the expectation that a random assignment would result in committees that are more diverse in terms of majors or disciplines, rather than having one committee composed entirely of social science majors and the other composed entirely of humanities majors.

Question 10

Theme 2 argues that people are usually fairly accurate on cognitive tasks.How does this theme apply to deductive reasoning tasks?

Accepted Answer

The theme applies to deductive reasoning tasks because people tend to be more accurate when the tasks are concrete and relevant to everyday situations, as opposed to abstract tasks.

Question 11

One reason that decision makers often use the representativeness heuristic inappropriately is that

Accepted Answer

Decision makers often use the representativeness heuristic inappropriately because they do not pay enough attention to sample size, leading them to make judgments based on how representative a sample appears rather than its actual statistical reliability.

Question 12

Suppose that Oksana is driving in a car to a friend's house.As she pulls into the friend's driveway,she sees that the odometer shows the number 2222.2 miles.She says to herself,"This number is weird…something really unusual is going to happen today when I am with my friend." This reaction would be an example of

Accepted Answer

The reaction of Oksana is an example of the representativeness heuristic where she sees an unusual number on the odometer and assumes that something unusual might happen later. This is a cognitive bias where people tend to make judgments based on how representative or similar an event or situation is to a prototype or category. In this case, Oksana is considering the odometer reading as representative of an unusual day.

Question 13

According to the research on the confirmation bias,

Accepted Answer

The confirmation bias refers to the tendency of people to search for and interpret information in a way that confirms their pre-existing beliefs or hypotheses, rather than considering alternative explanations or evidence that may disprove or contradict their assumptions. Therefore, people tend to prefer to confirm their hypotheses rather than disprove them, making choice C the correct answer. Choices A, B, and D are not accurate descriptions of the confirmation bias.

Question 14

On the classic selection task in conditional reasoning,people work on the problem,"If a card has a vowel on one side,then it has an even number on the other side." Research on variations of this task indicates that

Accepted Answer

Research indicates that people find it easier to solve conditional reasoning problems when they are presented in a concrete context, such as rules about drinking age, rather than abstract terms.

Question 15

Suppose that Joseph Brown is a U.S.diplomat who works in Country X,and he is trying to assess whether Country X poses a threat to the United States.The diplomat gathers evidence that Country X poses a threat,but he does not try to gather evidence that Country X does not pose a threat.This error is called

Accepted Answer

The diplomat's failure to gather evidence that Country X does not pose a threat is an example of confirmation bias, which is the tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs or hypotheses. In this case, the diplomat had an initial belief that Country X posed a threat and only sought out information that supported this belief, rather than considering information that could potentially disconfirm it.

Question 16

According to the discussion of sample size and representativeness,

Accepted Answer

People frequently commit the small-sample fallacy where they draw conclusions based on a small sample size that may not be representative of the population. A larger sample size is generally more reliable and representative of the population. Option A is incorrect as a small sample size is less reliable than a larger sample size. Option B is incorrect as people may trust larger samples as they are more representative. Option C is off-topic and not related to the discussion of sample size and representativeness.

Question 17

According to the research on the classic "selection task" (involving the cards that contain a letter and a number),

Accepted Answer

The research has shown that accuracy in the selection task is influenced by factors such as the concreteness and familiarity of the problem. When the problem is more concrete and familiar, people tend to perform better.

Question 18

The research on logical reasoning shows that the confirmation bias is especially likely to operate when the participants

Accepted Answer

Confirmation bias is more likely to occur when dealing with arbitrary stimuli because people tend to seek information that confirms their pre-existing beliefs, especially when the task lacks personal relevance or context.

Question 19

Which of the following students' statements provides the best overview of the research on decision making?

Accepted Answer

Nayan's statement provides a balanced overview of the research on decision making, acknowledging both the adaptive use of heuristics and the potential for inappropriate application. The other statements (A, C, and D) make overly simplistic or inaccurate generalizations about decision making.

Question 20

Your text discussed a classic study in which people were asked which cards they would need to turn over in order to find out whether a rule about the letters and numbers on the cards was true or false.What did the study show?

Accepted Answer

The study showed that people typically avoid trying to disprove their hypotheses, which is called confirmation bias. Participants in the study tended to focus on cards that would confirm their initial belief, rather than considering cards that could potentially disprove it.

Answer: A
 Although the study did not specifically address denying the consequent, it is a related concept that people often rely too heavily on in their reasoning. This type of error occurs when someone assumes that if a statement is true, then its converse must also be true (e.g., if it is raining, then the ground must be wet).

Answer: B and D are incorrect
 The study did not specifically address difficulties with double negatives (answer B) or overuse of bottom-up processing (answer D).

Quiz 12: Deductive Reasoning and Decision Making