Even though he knows only a small percentage of high school athletes go on to professional careers, Charlie believes that he will receive a scholarship to play football in college and then will have a career in the NFL. Charlie is
A)not applying base rates to himself.
B)applying base rates to himself.
C)ignoring the conjunction fallacy.
D)applying the conjunction fallacy.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Charlie is not applying base rates to himself because he believes he will be an exception to the statistical likelihood of high school athletes making it to the NFL. Base rates refer to the statistical probabilities or general rates at which events occur, and in this case, Charlie is overlooking the low probability of high school athletes advancing to professional careers.

Even Though He Knows Only a Small Percentage of High