For a project with many task paths of nearly equal lengths,the best way to estimate the probabilities associated with project completion is:
A)Estimate the probability for the critical path
B)Multiply the probabilities of all paths
C)Use simulation to model the project
D)Calculate the joint probability of project completion

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

When there are many task paths of nearly equal lengths, it becomes difficult to estimate the probabilities associated with project completion accurately. In such situations, the best way to estimate the probabilities is to use simulation to model the project. Simulation allows us to take into account the uncertainty associated with the project and generate a large number of possible outcomes. This helps us to understand the probability distribution of the project completion time and identify the critical paths that are most likely to cause delays. Therefore, choice C is the best choice. Choice A is not the best option as it only considers the probability of the critical path, which may not be the most likely one to cause delays. Choice B is not recommended as multiplying the probabilities of all paths assumes that they are all independent, which is not the case. Finally, choice D is not suitable as calculating the joint probability of project completion is a complex task, and it may not be possible to estimate accurately in practice.

For a Project with Many Task Paths of Nearly Equal