Felicity is rolling a die and incredibly,she ends up rolling a six 8 times in a row.When asked about the likelihood that her 9?? throw will also be a six,she says that she has likely run out of those by now,and so she thinks it is very unlikely that she will throw another six (of course,Felicity is wrong; all tosses have a 1 in 6 chance of being a six).What obstacle to problem solving is Felicity facing?
A) representativeness heuristic
B) availability heuristic
C) mental set
D) confirmation bias

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Felicity is facing the representativeness heuristic obstacle to problem solving. This is because she incorrectly believes that her previous outcomes (rolling a six 8 times in a row) affect the likelihood of her next roll, which is a misunderstanding of how probability works. The representativeness heuristic leads individuals to judge the probability of an event by how much it resembles what they consider to be a typical example of that event, rather than understanding each roll is an independent event with an equal chance of occurring.

Felicity Is Rolling a Die and Incredibly,she Ends Up Rolling