You decide that a bearded professor wearing a rumpled sports coat is a member of the art faculty,rather than the business school faculty (which actually has more members)because he looks like an artist.What judgment error have you committed?

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The judgment error committed in this scenario is not paying enough attention to the base rate. The fact that the business school has more members than the art faculty indicates that it is more likely for the bearded professor to belong to the business school. This is an example of the base rate fallacy, where people tend to underestimate the importance of the general information (in this case, the base rate) and focus more on specific information (in this case, the professor's appearance).

You Decide That a Bearded Professor Wearing a Rumpled Sports