Consider the following work breakdown structure: $$\begin{array}{l}

\begin{array} { c c c c c }
&&&\text { Time Estimates (days) }\
\text { Activity } & \text { Precedes } & \text { Optimistic } & \text { Most Likely } & \text { Pessimistic } \
\hline \text { Start } & \text { A, B, C } & - & - & - \
\text { A } & \text { D } & 38 & 50 & 62 \
\text { B } & \text { E } & 90 & 99 & 108 \
\text { C } & \text { End } & 85 & 100 & 115 \
\text { D } & \text { F } & 19 & 25 & 31 \
\text { E } & \text { End } & 91 & 100 & 115 \
\text { F } & \text { End } & 62 & 65 & 68
\end{array}
\end{array}$$ What is the probability that this project will be completed within 205 days?
A) 0.6826
B) 0.8413
C) 0.9544
D) 0.9772
E) 0.9987

Question

Consider the following work breakdown structure: $$\begin{array}{l}

\begin{array} { c c c c c } 
&&&\text { Time Estimates (days) }\
\text { Activity } & \text { Precedes } & \text { Optimistic } & \text { Most Likely } & \text { Pessimistic } \
\hline \text { Start } & \text { A, B, C } & - & - & - \
\text { A } & \text { D } & 38 & 50 & 62 \
\text { B } & \text { E } & 90 & 99 & 108 \
\text { C } & \text { End } & 85 & 100 & 115 \
\text { D } & \text { F } & 19 & 25 & 31 \
\text { E } & \text { End } & 91 & 100 & 115 \
\text { F } & \text { End } & 62 & 65 & 68
\end{array}
\end{array}$$ What is the probability that this project will be completed within 205 days?
A) 0.6826
B) 0.8413
C) 0.9544
D) 0.9772
E) 0.9987

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The critical path is B-E with an expected duration of 199 days and a standard deviation of 5 days. Using the Z-score formula, the probability of completing within 205 days is approximately 0.8413.

Consider the Following Work Breakdown Structure What Is the Probability That This Project Will Be Completed