Question 1

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique?
A) Associative forecast
B) Consumer survey
C) Series of questionnaires
D) Double smoothing
E) Historical data

Accepted Answer

The Delphi technique is a method of obtaining consensus from a group of experts through a series of questionnaires or surveys. It is used to forecast future events or trends.

Question 2

Persistent upward or downward movement in time series data is called:
A) seasonal variation.
B) cycles.
C) irregular variation.
D) trend.
E) random variation.

Accepted Answer

Persistent upward or downward movement in time series data is called trend.

Question 3

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?
A) Executive opinions
B) Sales force opinions
C) Consumer surveys
D) Expert opinions
E) Time series analysis

Accepted Answer

Time series analysis is not a type of judgmental forecasting, it is a quantitative forecasting method that uses past data to predict future outcomes. Executive opinions, sales force opinions, consumer surveys, and expert opinions are all types of judgmental forecasting which rely on the expertise and insights of individuals or groups to make forecasts.

Question 4

Given the following historical data,what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6?

A) 67
B) 115
C) 69
D) 68
E) 68.67

Accepted Answer

The answer of Given the following historical data,what is the...

Question 5

Which of the following would be an advantage of using opinions of a sales force to develop a demand forecast?
A) The sales staff is least affected by changing customer needs.
B) The sales force can easily distinguish between customer desires and probable actions.
C) The sales staff is often aware of customers' future plans.
D) Salespeople are least likely to be influenced by recent events.
E) Salespeople are least likely to be biased by sales quotas.

Accepted Answer

The advantage of using opinions of a sales force to develop a demand forecast is that the sales staff is often aware of customers' future plans. This information can help in making more accurate demand forecasts.

Question 6

A network security company is securing input from information technology managers trying to anticipate when Wi Fi networks might be available in at least half of their client's businesses.Which method are they most likely to use?
A) The Delphi method
B) Consumer surveys
C) Regression models
D) Naive method
E) Trend models

Accepted Answer

The Delphi method is a technique that is commonly used to gather expert opinions on a particular subject. In this case, the network security company is seeking input from IT managers, who would be considered experts in the field of technology. The Delphi method involves a series of questionnaires or surveys, where the experts are asked to provide their opinions on a given topic. The results are then combined and analyzed to provide a prediction or estimate.

Question 7

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique,the number of data points in the average should be:
A) decreased.
B) increased.
C) multiplied by a larger alpha.
D) multiplied by a smaller alpha.
E) none of the choices are true.

Accepted Answer

Decreasing the number of data points in a moving average makes the forecast more responsive to recent changes, as it gives more weight to the most recent observations.

Question 8

Time series data may exhibit all but which of the following behaviours?
A) Trend
B) Seasonality
C) Cycles
D) Irregularities
E) All of the choices may be exhibited

Accepted Answer

Time series data may exhibit trend, seasonality, cycles, and irregularities, so all choices may be exhibited. Therefore, option E is the best answer.

Question 9

Naive forecasting methods:
A) are quick and easy to prepare.
B) are easy for users to understand.
C) can serve as an accuracy standard for other techniques.
D) All of the choices are true.
E) None of the choices are true.

Accepted Answer

Naive forecasting methods are quick and easy to prepare, easy for users to understand, and can serve as an accuracy standard for other techniques. Therefore, all of the choices are true.

Question 10

Moving average forecasting techniques:
A) immediately reflect changing patterns in the time series.
B) lead changes in the time series.
C) smooth variations in the time series.
D) all of the choices are true.
E) none of the choices are true.

Accepted Answer

Moving average forecasting techniques smooth variations in the time series by calculating the average of a fixed number of previous data points. They are used to remove short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends, making them useful for identifying patterns in data over time. However, they do not immediately reflect changing patterns in the time series because they are based on past data only, and they do not lead changes in the time series because they are lagging indicators. Therefore, the best choice is C.

Question 11

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:
A) sales force opinions.
B) consumer surveys.
C) the Delphi method.
D) time series analysis.
E) executive opinions.

Accepted Answer

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is known as the Delphi method. This method involves a group of experts who provide their opinions and insights anonymously, and the responses are aggregated and summarized to arrive at a consensus forecast.

Question 12

Averaging forecasting techniques are useful for:
I.distinguishing between random and non-random variations
II.smoothing out fluctuations in data
III.forecasting cyclical time series
A) I only
B) I and II only
C) II only
D) II and III only
E) I, II, and III

Accepted Answer

Averaging forecasting techniques are primarily used to smooth out fluctuations in data (II) by averaging out the random variations, but they do not distinguish between random and non-random variations (I) or forecast cyclical time series (III).

Question 13

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is:
A) the duration of the repeating patterns.
B) the magnitude of the variation.
C) the ability to attribute the pattern to a cause.
D) all of the choices are differences.
E) none of the choices are differences.

Accepted Answer

Seasonality refers to repeating patterns that occur within a one-year period (e.g. summer vs. winter sales), while cycles refer to longer-term repeating patterns (e.g. economic booms and busts) that may last several years or even decades. Therefore, the primary difference between seasonality and cycles is the duration of the repeating patterns.

Question 14

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is:
A) responses are anonymous.
B) to achieve a high degree of accuracy.
C) to maintain accountability and responsibility.
D) to be able to replicate results.
E) all of the choices are reasons.

Accepted Answer

The Delphi method uses anonymous responses to prevent bias and influence among participants, allowing for independent and honest input.

Question 15

For the data given below,if the time series was assumed to be stable,what would the naive forecast be for the next period?

A) 58
B) 62
C) 59.5
D) 61
E) none of the choices are true

Accepted Answer

The answer of For the data given below,if the time...

Question 16

Disadvantages of naive forecasts include:
I.time-consuming to prepare
II.the techniques are complex therefore difficult to understand
III.do not smooth random variations
A) I, II, and III
B) I and II
C) I and III
D) II and III
E) none of the choices are disadvantages.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Disadvantages of naive forecasts include:
I.time-consuming to prepare
II.the...

Question 17

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:
A) a moving average forecast.
B) a naive forecast.
C) an exponentially smoothed forecast.
D) an associative forecast.
E) none of the choices are true.

Accepted Answer

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is referred to as a "naive" or "random walk" forecast. This method assumes that the most recent observation is the best predictor of future values, and does not take into account any trends or patterns in the data. While this approach can be useful for short-term forecasting, it is generally not very accurate over the long-term.

Question 18

Given the following historical data and weights of .5 for the most recent period,.3 for the next most recent,and .2 for the next after that,what is the weighted three-period moving average forecast for period 5?

A) 144.20
B) 144.80
C) 144.67
D) 143.00
E) 144.00

Accepted Answer

The answer of Given the following historical data and weights...

Question 19

Which of the following steps is considered the last step in the forecasting process?
A) Gather and analyze relevant historical data.
B) Determine the purpose of the forecast.
C) Monitor the forecast.
D) Prepare the forecast.
E) Establish a time horizon.

Accepted Answer

Monitoring the forecast is considered the last step in the forecasting process. After the forecast is prepared, it is important to track actual results and compare them to the forecast to evaluate the accuracy and adjust future forecasts accordingly.

Question 20

Which is not a characteristic of simple moving averages applied to time series data?
A) Smooths random variations in the data
B) Weights each historical value equally
C) Lags changes in the data
D) Has minimal reliance on historical data
E) Smooths real variations in the data

Accepted Answer

Simple moving averages rely heavily on historical data to generate the average, so option D is incorrect. A is a characteristic as simple moving averages smooth out the random variations in the data. B is correct as each historical value is given equal weight. C is correct as moving averages lag behind changes in the data. E is incorrect as simple moving averages smooth out all variations in the data, not just real ones.

Quiz 3: Demand Forecasting

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi technique?

Persistent upward or downward movement in time series data is called:

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

Given the following historical data,what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6?

Which of the following would be an advantage of using opinions of a sales force to develop a demand forecast?

A network security company is securing input from information technology managers trying to anticipate when Wi Fi networks might be available in at least half of their client's businesses.Which method are they most likely to use?

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving average technique,the number of data points in the average should be:

Time series data may exhibit all but which of the following behaviours?

Naive forecasting methods:

Moving average forecasting techniques:

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:

Averaging forecasting techniques are useful for: I.distinguishing between random and non-random variations II.smoothing out fluctuations in data III.forecasting cyclical time series

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is:

One reason for using the Delphi method in forecasting is:

For the data given below,if the time series was assumed to be stable,what would the naive forecast be for the next period?

Disadvantages of naive forecasts include: I.time-consuming to prepare II.the techniques are complex therefore difficult to understand III.do not smooth random variations

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

Given the following historical data and weights of .5 for the most recent period,.3 for the next most recent,and .2 for the next after that,what is the weighted three-period moving average forecast for period 5?

Which of the following steps is considered the last step in the forecasting process?

Which is not a characteristic of simple moving averages applied to time series data?