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Mathematics
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Reconceptualizing Mathematics
Quiz 27: Quantifying Uncertainty
Path 4
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Question 21
Essay
Experiment: Spin each of the two spinners below and record the color on each.
A) Give the sample space for the experiment. B) Describe an event for the experiment above, and tell how one would determine the experimental probability for the event.
Question 22
True/False
In an experiment with two outcomes, each outcome must have probability 50%.
Question 23
True/False
For a three-color spinner with P(red) =
1
4
\frac { 1 } { 4 }
4
1
and P(white) =
1
8
\frac { 1 } { 8 }
8
1
, P(blue) could be
7
8
\frac { 7 } { 8 }
8
7
.
Question 24
True/False
The theoretical probability and the experimental probability of an event will be the same.
Question 25
Essay
In an experiment with four outcomes, P, Q, R, and S, the probability of P is
1
3
\frac { 1 } { 3 }
3
1
, the probability of Q is
1
2
\frac { 1 } { 2 }
2
1
, and the probabilities of R and S are equal to each other. What is the probability of S? A)
1
12
\frac { 1 } { 12 }
12
1
B)
1
6
\frac { 1 } { 6 }
6
1
C)
3
10
\frac { 3 } { 10 }
10
3
D)
5
6
\frac { 5 } { 6 }
6
5
Question 26
Essay
Design a simulation for a spinner that would allow a simulation of a birth happening during any of the 12 months of the year with equal probabilities. Describe how you would carry out the simulation.
Question 27
Essay
Design an experiment based on drawing balls from a bag that would allow for the simulation of a success (getting well) for a sick person undergoing a treatment, with probability of success 0.6.
Question 28
Essay
You give a child the choice of drawing from two bags of balls. The child wins if he/she draws a red ball. Bag 1 has four red balls and seven green balls; bag 2 has two red balls and three green balls. Which bag gives the child a better chance of winning (or are the chances the same)? Please explain.
Question 29
True/False
Simulating an experiment with randomly generated numbers gives experimental probabilities.
Question 30
Essay
You may wish to use a table of randomly generated numbers efficiently to simulate this experiment. Experiment: Draw a ball from a bag that has 13 black balls (B), 5 red balls (R), and 2 green balls (G), and note its color. A) Tell what your code would be if you use two-digit random numbers. Use an efficient code, omitting as few numbers as you can. 00 01 02 03 …………………………………………………… 97 98 99 B) Use the following randomly selected digits to simulate the experiment above 15 times. 10394 8854 96029 711517 87601 71480 49210 81314 84069 64343 65909 23870 C) What is the theoretical probability of getting a red ball? D) What is the probability of getting a red ball from your simulation in part B? E) Explain the difference between the answer in part C and the answer in part D.
Question 31
Essay
You may wish to use randomly selected digits efficiently to simulate this experiment. Experiment: Draw a ball from a bag that has 11 black balls (B), 5 red balls (R), and 4 green balls (G), and note its color. A) Tell what your code would be if you use two-digit numbers. Use an efficient code, omitting as few numbers as you can. 00 01 02 03 …………………………………………………… 97 98 99 B) Use the following from our table of randomly selected digits to simulate the experiment above 15 times efficiently. 11517 87601 71480 49210 81314 84069 64343 65909 23870 10394 8854 96029 C) What is the theoretical probability of getting a green ball? D) What is the probability of getting a green ball from your simulation in part B? E) Explain the difference between the answer in part C and the answer in part D.
Question 32
Essay
One basketball player hits 46% of her shots. A) Give a code for hits and a code for misses so that one could use the table of randomly selected digits to simulate shots by the player. B) If you use your code two times to simulate 300 shots each time, will you get the same results both times? Explain why/why not.
Question 33
Essay
Ten percent of the time a student comes to my office, he or she leaves something behind. Estimate the probability, using a simulation model and the two-line random number table given, that exactly one out of the next four students will leave something behind. (Use 20 samples.) Show how you came to your answer. 13366527640249714202741725877065348241154427796735 96734100241534687634091232686745732531809874574312
Question 34
Essay
A) Design a table of randomly selected digits simulation for the following experiment. Spin a spinner that is
1
4
\frac { 1 } { 4 }
4
1
red,
1
2
\frac { 1 } { 2 }
2
1
green, and the rest white, and notice the color. B) Do your simulation 20 times. Record enough so that your work can be checked. C) According to your simulation, what is the probability of green?
Question 35
Essay
An experimental rocket will be launched. The launch has an 89% probability of success. With a table of randomly selected digits, what would be an efficient code for success and an efficient code for failure for simulating the launch?