Which of the following applies to the problem of overconfidence in personal probability assessment?
A)Research shows that the more confident people are that they are right, the more the true proportion of correct answers falls below the perceived probability of being right.
B)One way to help eliminate overconfidence is to get people to consider reasons why they might be wrong.
C)When people venture a guess about something for which they are uncertain, they tend to overestimate the probability that they are correct.
D)All of the above.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

All of the statements listed apply to the problem of overconfidence in personal probability assessment. Research has shown that people who are more confident in their answers tend to be less accurate, substantiating statement A. Statement B aligns with the concept of metacognition, or thinking about thinking, as considering why one may be wrong can help individuals assess their own confidence more accurately. Finally, statement C describes a common phenomenon in probability assessment, where individuals tend to overestimate their own accuracy when they are unsure about the answer.

Which of the Following Applies to the Problem of Overconfidence