Question 1

An instructor was interested in students' perceptions of cheating. She wanted to protect the confidentiality of their responses, so she told students to write the last two digits of their student number (from 00 to 99) in a space at the top of their form. The first question the instructor asked them was to estimate from 0% to 100% the percentage of college students they believed cheat in their course work at least once a semester. Based on the research by Ariely and his colleagues (2003), students would MOST likely:

Accepted Answer

According to the research by Ariely and his colleagues (2003), students tend to insufficiently adjust their estimates based on the anchor they use. In this case, the anchor is the last two digits of their student number, which is not likely to have any relevance to their perceptions of cheating. Therefore, students may use this anchor as a starting point and fail to adjust their estimates accordingly, leading to potentially inaccurate perceptions of the prevalence of cheating among college students.

Question 2

Two teammates on a soccer team, Lindsay and Reyha, had similar shooting averages that were better than the league average. In the semi-final championship game, Lindsay had scored especially well. At the beginning of the final game, Lindsay was again shooting very well, and the coach told the team to pass to Lindsay as much as possible because she was "hot"; however, in the last half of the game, Lindsay's shooting fell below her average, while Reyha's shooting rose above her average. The problem with the coach's advice was that the coach did not realize that:

Accepted Answer

The coach made the mistake of assuming that Lindsay's hot streak would continue for the entire game and that Reyha's shooting would stay the same. However, both players' shooting averages were similar and had been better than the league average, indicating that their scores were likely to regress to their means. Therefore, it would have been better for the team to continue to distribute the ball evenly among all players rather than focusing solely on Lindsay.

Question 3

Jon read an advertisement in the college newspaper that said a college student was looking for a roommate to share an apartment. The ad encouraged students who liked to cook and keep a tidy room. Jon thought, "I'll bet the student is looking not just for any college student, but rather for a female college student. I'm not even going to check this one out." Jon's informal estimate shows he may be committing which thinking error?

Accepted Answer

Jon's assumption that the student is specifically looking for a female college student falls under the conjunction fallacy, which is the tendency to believe that specific conditions are more probable than general ones. Jon is assuming that the conditions of liking to cook and keeping a tidy room require a specific gender, rather than general traits that can apply to any college student.

Question 4

Chris received an advertisement requesting a donation for a program to help troubled youths. He was sympathetic because his own childhood had been difficult. The ad had a line with spaces to indicate the level of contribution, with the first space showing $30, followed by $60, $100, then $500 (Gold Support), and a final blank space to write in the contribution. Before Chris saw the level of contribution line, he thought, "I'll give $20"; after seeing the contribution line, he wrote in $25 instead on the blank space. Chris's decision to give the higher amount was MOST likely influenced by the:

Accepted Answer

Chris's decision to give a higher amount than he initially planned was most likely influenced by the anchoring and adjustment heuristic. This heuristic involves making decisions based on adjustments to a previously existing value or starting point (in this case, the suggested donation amounts), which served as an "anchor" for his final decision.

Question 5

Haru was tossing a fair coin and had gotten tails four times in a row. He said, "I think I am due to get heads on the next toss." Haru's incorrect judgment is MOST related to:

Accepted Answer

Haru's incorrect judgment is related to his misunderstanding of randomness and independent events, which he is using the representativeness heuristic to resolve. This is because he assumes that the probability of getting a head must increase after getting tails four times in a row, when in reality, each coin toss is an independent event with a 50/50 chance of heads or tails regardless of previous outcomes.

Question 6

Suppose a graphologist believes that a person's handwriting can indicate personality traits, as when a writer makes t's or f's with a whip-like flourish indicating sadism because sadists enjoy hurting people with whips. This is an example of:

Accepted Answer

The answer of Suppose a graphologist believes that a person's...

Question 7

Judging a sick person shivering from a fever as being like a person who is shivering from the cold is using:

Accepted Answer

The person is using the representativeness heuristic, which is a mental shortcut that involves placing a person or object into a category based on how similar it is to a prototype of that category. In this case, the sick person is being categorized as someone who is cold and shivering, because that is a common stereotype. While this may not be an accurate assessment of the situation, it is a quick and easy way to make sense of what is happening.

Question 8

Suppose an anonymous personal ad in the college newspaper describes a 19-year-old man who likes to run and enjoys competitive sports. Based on the information provided about making such judgments in this chapter, the man described is MOST likely a:

Accepted Answer

The information provided directly indicates that the individual is a 19-year-old man who enjoys activities commonly associated with college students, such as running and competitive sports. However, there is no specific information to confirm his current involvement in a sports team or his specific interest in watching football. Therefore, the most accurate and broadly applicable choice based on the given information is that he is a college student.

Question 9

In the 1980s and 1990s, many people became concerned that Satanic cults were abducting and abusing people, although no good evidence supported this claim. Some clinicians began to conduct workshops warning other clinicians about the dangers of Satanic ritual abuse and explaining how to identify repressed memories of Satanic ritual abuse they might observe. After much media attention, some clinicians began to identify many more cases of repressed memory of Satanic ritual abuse. The MOST likely reason for this great increase is that clinicians were making judgments based on the:

Accepted Answer

The availability heuristic is the most likely reason for the increase in cases of repressed memory of Satanic ritual abuse. This heuristic involves making judgments based on the ease with which examples come to mind. In this case, the clinicians had been attending workshops and hearing stories about Satanic cults and abuse, which made it easier for them to identify cases of repressed memories related to this topic. This led to an increase in reported cases, even though there was no good evidence to support the existence of Satanic cults abducting and abusing people.

Question 10

If someone estimates that more people die from tornadoes than from asthma each year because that person has seen a lot of media coverage of people killed by tornadoes, then that person is:

Accepted Answer

This person is likely making an inaccurate estimate based on availability bias, which is the tendency to rely on readily available information such as media coverage rather than taking into account overall statistics and probabilities. It is important to consider all available information when making estimates, rather than relying on a narrow selection of sources.

Question 11

The judgment errors of the gambler's fallacy and the illusion of the "hot hand" have in common that both:

Accepted Answer

Both the gambler's fallacy and the illusion of the "hot hand" are errors in estimating randomness, where people believe that random events should be representative even though they are independent. For example, in the gambler's fallacy, a person may think that a coin (or roulette wheel) that has landed on tails many times in a row is "due" to land on heads soon, even though every flip or spin is an independent event with a 50/50 chance. Likewise, with the illusion of the "hot hand," basketball players (or other athletes) might believe that they are more likely to make a shot if they've made several in a row, even though each shot attempt is independent and their previous makes or misses have no bearing on the next shot. Both fallacies involve errors in representativeness when dealing with independent events.

Question 12

Being affected by vivid examples and recent experiences is MOST related to:

Accepted Answer

This is because the availability heuristic is the tendency to judge the likelihood of an event based on how easily examples come to mind. Vivid examples and recent experiences are more easily accessible in memory and therefore more likely to be used to make judgments about likelihood or frequency.

Question 13

If someone estimates that more people die from plane crashes than from car accidents each year based on that person's exposure to typical media coverage of these two events, then the estimate of that person is:

Accepted Answer

This is an example of availability heuristic, where the person's estimate is based on the vividness and frequency of information retrieved from memory (i.e., media coverage) rather than statistical data. In reality, more people die from car accidents than from plane crashes each year.

Question 14

Jared, a high school senior, was searching for colleges and found a website for a school in which all the students were well dressed in the photos. Jared said to himself, "That place looks too sophisticated for me. I want to go somewhere that is more casual," and he left the website. Jared is MOST likely:

Accepted Answer

Jared is basing his decision on the representativeness heuristic, as he is judging the entire college based on a small sample size (the photos on the website). He assumes that because the students in the photos are well dressed, the entire school must be too sophisticated for him.

Question 15

Which statement is TRUE about the popular idea about the "hair of the dog that bit you," meaning that having another drink as a good way to cure a hangover?

Accepted Answer

The idea of "hair of the dog that bit you" is similar to using a homeopathic cure because it involves using a small amount of the same substance that caused the ailment to cure it. However, there is no scientific evidence to support the effectiveness of this remedy and it can actually lead to increased alcohol consumption and further dehydration, which worsens the symptoms of a hangover.

Question 16

An earlier chapter discussed how when someone makes an argument, there may be greater availability of "myside" evidence-that is, reasons that support the person's favored position and contribute to confirmation bias. Which action BEST presents a strategy that is effective in debiasing confirmation bias?

Accepted Answer

Considering the opposite or reflecting on evidence supporting the other side is an effective strategy for debiasing confirmation bias. By actively seeking out evidence and arguments that contradict one's favored position, individuals can reduce the influence of confirmation bias on their reasoning processes. This can help them arrive at more objective and accurate conclusions.

Question 17

A basketball coach noticed that one of his players had sunk three 3-point shots in a row before the final shot in a game. The final shot, however, was taken and missed by a second player. For the final shot, both players were open, but the team passed the ball to the second player, who had a better shooting average than the first. The coach felt regret that he had not told the players to pass the ball to the first player, who was obviously on a shooting streak. The BEST analysis of randomness and representativeness in the game's final shot is that:

Accepted Answer

The final shot should have been taken by the player with the best shooting average. This is because shooting streaks are not reliable indicators of future performance and may be due to chance rather than skill. The coach should not have based the decision on the player's previous successful shots but on their overall performance throughout the game. As such, passing the ball to the player with the best shooting average was the most rational decision.

Question 18

Married for 12 years, Maria and Jose have six girls and no sons. Jose said, "I think we should try again because this next time we are bound to have a boy." Which kind of thinking error is Jose committing?

Accepted Answer

Jose is committing the gambler's fallacy, believing that previous outcomes will influence future outcomes in a way that is statistically unlikely or impossible. The chances of having a boy or girl are always 50/50 and are not influenced by previous outcomes.

Question 19

Graphologists believe that analysis of a person's handwriting can indicate the personality and other characteristics of the person. A graphologist concludes that a person who crosses t's and f's with whip-like lines is a sadist, because sadists often enjoy hurting people with whips. That graphologist MOST likely:

Accepted Answer

This graphologist reasoned by representativeness, meaning they made a judgment based on the assumption that a person who crosses t's and f's with whip-like lines is representative of a sadist. However, this is an incorrect judgment as there is no evidence to support the claim that all sadists enjoy hurting people with whips, and there are likely other reasons someone might cross their t's and f's in this way.

Question 20

Jiao was one of the better players on her basketball team, making an average of 55% of her shots from the outside. Only Tonya surpassed her, with an average of 60% from the outside. Jiao had been having a great game, making the last three shots from the outside in a row. In the final seconds of a tied game, Karyme had the ball and both Jiao and Tonya were open for shots from the outside. Karyme decided to pass it to Jiao for the shot. What should Karyme have taken into account in her decision?

Accepted Answer

Tonya has a higher average shooting percentage from the outside (60%) compared to Jiao (55%), making her statistically more likely to make the next shot.

Quiz 11: Judgment, Decision Making, and Types of Thinking