The judgment errors of the gambler's fallacy and the illusion of the "hot hand" have in common that both:
A) are errors in estimating randomness related to representativeness.
B) are errors based on hindsight bias related to availability.
C) seem plausible given what is known from probability theory.
D) depend on overconfidence and mistakes in metacognition.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Both the gambler's fallacy and the illusion of the "hot hand" are errors in estimating randomness, where people believe that random events should be representative even though they are independent. For example, in the gambler's fallacy, a person may think that a coin (or roulette wheel) that has landed on tails many times in a row is "due" to land on heads soon, even though every flip or spin is an independent event with a 50/50 chance. Likewise, with the illusion of the "hot hand," basketball players (or other athletes) might believe that they are more likely to make a shot if they've made several in a row, even though each shot attempt is independent and their previous makes or misses have no bearing on the next shot. Both fallacies involve errors in representativeness when dealing with independent events.

The Judgment Errors of the Gambler's Fallacy and the Illusion