## Foundations of Operations Management Study Set 2

Statistics

## Quiz 11 :

Managing Demand and Forecasting

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Q01 Q01 Q01

Demands for a newly developed salad bar at the Great Professional restaurant for the first six months of this year are shown below. What is the forecast for July if the weighted moving average method is used? (Use weights of 0.5 for the most recent demand, 0.3, and 0.2.)

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C

Q02 Q02 Q02

Use the information in Table 11.1. Your boss has asked you to find a good technique to forecast short- term demand for an important product. You have decided to test the following four techniques against the historical data already given: -Three- month simple moving average

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Multiple Choice

C

Q21 Q21 Q21

Assume that a time series forecast is generated for future demand, and subsequently it is observed that the forecast method did not accurately predict the actual demand. Specifically, the forecast errors were found to be: Mean absolute percent error = 10% Cumulative sum of forecast errors = 0%

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Multiple Choice

Q32 Q32 Q32

The Classical Consultant Company provides forecasting research for clients such as a group of five doctors associated with a new hospital health maintenance program. The company has been asked to forecast the number of patients requesting blood analysis per week. The past weekly average is 38 and for the trend is 2 per week. This week's demand was 42 blood tests. How many patients Will come next week? (Suppose a = 0.10 and fi = 0.30.)

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Multiple Choice

Q60 Q60 Q60

The owner of the Crossed Connections electronic appliance repair shop is enjoying increasing demand for her services. Total weekly demand, measured in standard labor hours, has been increasing. The owner uses trend- adjusted exponential smoothing to make forecasts for the following week so that she can plan work schedules and staffing levels. She has the following data to prepare her forecast: A

_{t}_{-}_{ }_{1}_{ }_{ }= 100 hours a = 0.30Free

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Multiple Choice

Q167 Q167 Q167

Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 11, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 79.0 and an alpha of 0.2. Second, calculate the 3- period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11. Third, calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 11, using weights of .70, .20, and .10. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?

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Q169 Q169 Q169

Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 11, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.3. Second, calculate the 3- period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11. Third, calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 11, using weights of .50, .30, and .20. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?

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Q174 Q174 Q174

Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 11, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 120.0 and an alpha of 0.3. Second, calculate the 3- period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11. Third, calculate the weighted moving average for periods 4 through 11, using weights of .60, .30, and .10. Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) and the cumulative sum of forecast error (CFE) for each forecasting procedure. Which forecasting procedure would you select? Why?

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Q187 Q187 Q187

Luigui, who has been operating a very successful Italian restaurant in downtown Toronto, has had great success using forecasting techniques to predict demand for the main menu items ever since opening day. His forecast for last month was grossly inaccurate and so far this month, his forecast appears to be just as bad as last months. It's already time to prepare the forecast for next month, what should he do about his model?

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