Joe is betting Jim on whether a tossed coin will land on heads or tails. Joe has bet heads the last four times and has lost each time. If on the next toss he bets heads again and says, "It's got to be heads, heads is overdue" his reasoning illustrates the
A) base rate fallacy.
B) gambler's fallacy.
C) conjunction fallacy.
D) overestimation fallacy.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Joe's reasoning demonstrates the gambler's fallacy, which is the belief that past independent events affect the probability of a random event. In reality, each coin toss is an independent event with a 50% chance of landing on heads, regardless of past outcomes.

Joe Is Betting Jim on Whether a Tossed Coin Will