2 edition of **Measuring the persistence of expected returns** found in the catalog.

Measuring the persistence of expected returns

John Y. Campbell

- 382 Want to read
- 14 Currently reading

Published
**1990**
by National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, MA
.

Written in English

- Rate of return -- Forecasting -- Econometric models.,
- Stock price indexes -- United States.,
- Rational expectations (Economic theory),
- Autogression (Statistics).,
- Analysis of variance.

**Edition Notes**

Statement | John Y. Campbell. |

Series | NBER working paper series ; Working paper no. 3305, Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) -- working paper no. 3305. |

Contributions | National Bureau of Economic Research. |

The Physical Object | |
---|---|

Pagination | 12 p. ; |

Number of Pages | 12 |

ID Numbers | |

Open Library | OL22438418M |

the return measurement period, and the model used to calculate expected returns. We document a positive relationship between measures of fund style consistency and the persistence of its future performance, net of momentum and past performance effects. We conclude that the decision to maintain a consistent investment style is an important. the lottery offers a negative expected return. They play because of the very small chance of a life-transforming win. Indeed, very few people would play if the biggest prize was $, even if the number of winners were multi-plied many times over. Similarly, the temptation to down a whole bottle of alcohol, rather than sip a glass of.

Measuring sustainability as persistence In seeking examples of studies that included any degree of follow-up evaluation, we found that evaluation of health promotion programs, primarily in regard to improving individual behavior, and continued concordance with treatment guidelines after implementation or dissemination, targeting either provider. The portfolio expected return, E(R p), is calculated by taking the sum of the security weights multiplied by their respective expected returns. The portfolio standard deviation is the sum of the weighted covariances. We estimate Efficient Frontiers, maximizing returns or a given level of risk and minimizing risk for a given level of return.

The sixth book in the James Runcie's much-loved series, which has been adapted for Masterpiece's Grantchester starring James Norton, sees full-time priest, part-time detective Sidney Chambers plunged back into sleuthing when he discovers a body in a bluebell wood.4/5(). Most importantly for our analysis, Conrad and Kaul report the mean‐reversion of stock returns in the very short run, one week or one month, and the medium‐term persistence of momentum to drive stock prices higher in the 3, 6, 9, 12, and 18‐month time horizons over the – and – time periods. 3 Jagadeesh and Titman.

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Get this from a library. Measuring the persistence of expected returns. [John Y Campbell; National Bureau of Economic Research.]. Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns John Y.

Campbell. NBER Working Paper No. (Also Reprint No. r) Issued in March NBER Program(s):Monetary Economics This paper summarizes earlier research On the sources of variation in monthly U.S.

stock returns in. Additional Physical Format: Print version: Campbell, John Y. Measuring the persistence of expected returns.

Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, []. Downloadable. This paper summarizes earlier research On the sources of variation in monthly U.S. stock returns in the period A log-linear model is used to break unexpected returns into changing expectations about future dividends and changing expectations about future returns.

Even though stock returns are not highly forecastable, the model attributes one-third of the variation in. Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns. By John Campbell.

Download PDF ( KB) Abstract. Economic Publisher: American Economic Association. Year: OAI identifier: oai::1/ Provided by: Harvard University - DASH. Journal: Downloaded from Author: John Campbell.

The expected return is simply the product of the time-varying price of risk and the time-varying conditional variance. From this time-series we obtain a measure of the persistence in expected returns by estimating the AR(1) model in Eq.

(2). 5, 6. This paper examines the persistence in the volatility of the G7’s major stock market indices. The daily returns of the S&P/ NIKKEIFTSE and S&P were modeled using a GARCH(1, 1), IGARCH(1, 1) and FIGARCH (1, d, 1) framework after.

Interestingly, the effect of education on returns in the OLS specification is somewhat lower than on before‐tax returns, mostly because taxes on capital increase with the stock of wealth, which is higher for high education individuals 35 Using the after‐tax measure of return to net worth, the excess return on private equity is lower than.

Modeling the Persistence in Expected Returns Dooruj Rambaccussingy University of Exeter Novem Abstract The major contribution of this paper is to explicitly model the persis-tence in the time series of expected returns. The series of expected returns is derived from a state space representation of the net present value iden.

This paper examines the time-series relations among expected return, risk, and book-to-market (B/M) at the portfolio level. I find that B/M predicts economically and statistically significant time.

Return. Returns are always calculated as annual rates of return, or the percentage of return created for each unit (dollar) of original value. If an investment earns 5 percent, for example, that means that for every $ invested, you would earn $5 per year (because $5 = 5% of $).

(ii) Excess Returns and Earnings Quality. We propose a stock-price-based measure for assessing the quality of earnings quality measures. A major objective of accounting information is to provide investors with information to enable them to make optimal capital allocation decisions, so that stock prices aggregate financial information and other information available in capital markets efficiently.

Measuring the Persistence of Expected Returns By JOHN Y. CAMPBELL* A great deal of recent research has docu-mented the fact that rational expectations of real returns on long-term financial assets move systematically through time.

Most of this work concentrates on the variability of expected returns, but the persistence or serial. Downloadable (with restrictions). Author(s): Kormendi, Roger & Lipe, Robert. Abstract: This study designs and implements new tests of the information contained in accounting earnings.

The authors examine whether the magnitude of the effect of unexpected earnings on stock returns is (positively) correlated with the presen t value of revisions in expected future earnings derived from a. Valuation theory says that expected stock returns are related to three variables: the book-to-market equity ratio (B-t/M-t), expected profitability, and expected investment.

Download PDF: Sorry, we are unable to provide the full text but you may find it at the following location(s): ?si (external link).

However, persistence seems to be a property that exhibits somewhat a similar feature across the 2 series. The results that we obtain above are consistent with this working paper at the RBI (the Indian central bank) which illustrates low persistence level across various measure of inflation.

We have essentially replicated this methodology using. Citation Campbell, John Y. Measuring the persistence of expected returns. American Economic Rev no. 2: Expected return is simply a measure of probabilities intended to show the likelihood that a given investment will generate a positive return, and what the likely return will be.

The purpose of calculating the expected return on an investment is to provide an investor with an idea of probable profit vs risk. This gives the investor a basis for. persistence of state of limit order book.

There is a few studies on persistence in liquidity. Chan () studies the implication of persis-tence in liquidity for expected return. In theoretical framework Hong and Ready () expecta tion about future evolution of liquidity is linked to persistence of liquidity.

Our contributions to. To calculate a portfolio's expected return, an investor needs to calculate the expected return of each of its holdings, as well as the overall weight of each holding.Historical returns are often used by the investors with a view to estimating the expected rates of return.

The first measure of return from an individual investment is the historical rate of return during the period the investment is held.

The second measure of return is the measure of expected rate of return. Formally, the measurement of persistence of poverty resides in using logit or probit models, in order to calculate the probability of going out or falling into poverty from one period to another.

Another way of estimating it is to regress with real per capita household consumption based on other explanatory variables of the individual/household.