Jeff is 33 years old,intelligent,and outgoing.In college,he majored in English and was very concerned with current political issues.Which statement MOST likely describes Jeff?
A)Jeff is a bank teller.
B)Jeff is a bank teller and writes nonfiction stories.
C)Jeff is a bank teller who writes nonfiction stories and does crossword puzzles.
D)Jeff is a bank teller who writes nonfiction stories,does crossword puzzles,and is active in his local government.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The conjunction fallacy suggests that people tend to overestimate the probability of conjunctive events. While Jeff's interests and major might suggest he is involved in writing or politics, the simplest and most probable statement is that he is a bank teller, without additional specific activities.

Jeff Is 33 Years Old,intelligent,and Outgoing