A decline in nominal GDP is the single best indicator of a recession.

Name: A decline in nominal GDP is the single best indicator of a recession.
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A recession is typically defined by a decline in real GDP (not nominal GDP) for two consecutive quarters, among other economic indicators such as unemployment rates and industrial production. Nominal GDP can be misleading because it does not account for changes in price levels (inflation or deflation).

A Decline in Nominal GDP Is the Single Best Indicator