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Considering Your Answers for Questions 78 Through 83,please State How Pt+1=Pter+aN(0,1)P _ { t + 1 } = P _ { t } e ^ { r + a N ( 0,1 ) }

Question 45

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Considering your answers for Questions 78 through 83,please state how many units of capacity you think the plant should be built for and explain why.
An executive has been offered a compensation package that includes stock options.The current stock price is $30/share,and she has been offered a call option on 2000 shares,which can be exercised five years from now at a price of $42/share.Therefore,if the market price of the shares in five years is more than $42/share,she can buy 2000 shares at $42/share,and then immediately sell the shares at the market price,earning a riskless profit.If the market price of the shares was less than $42/share,she will obviously choose not to exercise the option,and would have zero profit.
Assume the price of the stock can be modeled as exponential growth (compounding),which could be calculated as: Pt+1=Pter+aN(0,1)P _ { t + 1 } = P _ { t } e ^ { r + a N ( 0,1 ) }
where, Pt+1P _ { t + 1 }
stock price in next period (i.e. ,price next year) PtP _ { t }
current stock price ff
annual growth rate of the stock price,which has been 10% σ\sigma
annual volatility,which is estimated to be 18% N(0,1)=N ( 0,1 ) =
normal random variable with mean of zero and standard deviation of 1

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