For a forecast to show skill it must
A) be better than one based on persistence or climatology.
B) be accurate to within 2 C of the predicted temperature.
C) be accurate for over more than 90 percent of the forecast area.
D) use the analogue method of forecasting.
E) use a probability.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Skill in a forecast is measured by its ability to outperform a forecast based on persistence (just assuming the same conditions as the previous day) or climatology (long-term averages). Therefore, option A is the correct answer. The other options, such as accuracy within a specific range or percentage, or using a particular forecasting method, do not necessarily indicate skill.

For a Forecast to Show Skill It Must