Consider the following scenario when answering the following questions:
Imagine a game show on television where one lucky contestant is presented with four upside-down buckets that are numbered 1,2,3,and 4.Under one of the buckets is exactly one $100 bill.Under each of the other three buckets is exactly one $5 bill.After the game ends,the contestant will receive the amount of money that is under his or her bucket.
The host of the game show asks the contestant to choose one of the four buckets.After the contestant makes a choice,the host lifts up two of the remaining three buckets to reveal a $5 bill under each of them.At this point,only two buckets remain uncovered: the bucket that the contestant originally chose and the bucket that was not uncovered by the host.
The host subsequently asks the contestant if he or she would like to keep the original bucket or change buckets to the only other bucket remaining.
-In the context of behavioral economics,the belief that outcomes that have not occurred in the recent past are more likely to occur soon,and that recent outcomes are unlikely to be repeated in the near future is best referred to as the ________ fallacy.
A) gambler's
B) base-rate
C) existential
D) hot-hand
E) broken-window

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The gambler's fallacy is the belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or vice versa. In the context of the game show, if a contestant believes that because $5 bills were found under the other buckets, the $100 bill is more likely to be under one of the remaining buckets (including the one they did not choose), they are exhibiting the gambler's fallacy. This fallacy is often observed in gambling scenarios where players believe that outcomes are "due" to happen.

Consider the Following Scenario When Answering the Following Questions