At freshman orientation,1,500 students are asked to flip a coin 20 times.One student is crowned the winner (tossed 20 heads).This is most closely associated with ________.
A)regret avoidance
B)selection bias
C)overconfidence
D)the lucky event issue
E)none of the above

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The lucky event issue refers to the tendency to overemphasize or overestimate the role of luck or chance in events or outcomes. In this scenario, the student who flipped 20 heads in a row is seen as lucky, despite the fact that the probability of this occurring is very low (1 in 1,048,576). This can lead to an overestimation of the importance of luck, and a tendency to discount skill or other factors that may play a role in success.

At Freshman Orientation,1,500 Students Are Asked to Flip a Coin