Concern over school shootings has led to the assessment of many youths and attempts to predict which youths will be potential shooters.The problem is that many of these youths will be wrongly classified as potential shooters because we overestimate the prevalence of school shooting incidents.This example reflects
A)True negatives
B)False negatives
C)True positives
D)False positives
E)The base rate problem

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The example reflects the base rate problem, which is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of an event based on limited information and ignoring the base rate or prevalence of the event in the population. In this case, the base rate of school shootings is low, so even if a prediction model has high accuracy, it may still produce a high rate of false positives or wrongly classified individuals.

Concern Over School Shootings Has Led to the Assessment of Many