If asked,"Which is more probable? A.Number one ranked golfer Luke Donald will not be in the lead after the first round of golf of a tournament but will win the tournament.B.Number one ranked golfer Luke Donald will not be in the lead after the first round of golf of a tournament." Most people would answer A,although A is less likely to be true than B.According to Tversky and Kahneman,such faulty conclusions are based on
A) the representativeness heuristic.
B) convergent thinking.
C) divergent thinking.
D) the framing effect.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

This faulty conclusion is based on the representativeness heuristic, which is the tendency to judge the likelihood or probability of an event based on how well it represents, or matches, our expectations or stereotypes of that event. In this case, people may perceive it as more representative or typical for the number one ranked golfer to win the tournament, even if they do not lead after the first round. However, the actual probability or statistical likelihood of that outcome may be lower than the probability that Donald will not be in the lead after the first round.

If Asked,"Which Is More Probable? A