For the data $(0,100),(1,200),(2,220),(3,220),(4,266),(5,318)$, where the first number in parenthesis is period and the second number is the actual demand, the exponentially smoothed forecast for period $6\left(\mathrm{~F}_{6}\right)$, with initial forecast $\left(\mathrm{F}_{0}\right)=100$, was found to be 312.3. The researcher forgot the a used in the calculations, but it is known that the a used is either 0.9 or 0.2 . What is your best guess for the $\alpha$ used, applying the properties of exponential smoothing?
A) 0.2
B) 0.9
C) Either 0.2 or 0.9
D) Cannot be guessed
E) Only way is to calculate with both a and check

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Exponential smoothing forecasts are more responsive to recent changes when a higher alpha ($\alpha$) value is used. Given the forecast for period 6 ($F_6$) is 312.3, which is very close to the actual demand of period 5 (318), it suggests a high $\alpha$ value was used to give more weight to the most recent actual demand. Therefore, $\alpha = 0.9$ is the best guess.

For the Data (0,100),(1,200),(2,220),(3,220),(4,266),(5,318)(0,100),(1,200),(2,220),(3,220),(4,266),(5,318)(0,100),(1,200),(2,220),(3,220),(4,266),(5,318) , Where the First Number in Parenthesis Is Period and Parenthesis

For the Data $(0,100),(1,200),(2,220),(3,220),(4,266),(5,318)$ , Where the First Number in Parenthesis Is Period and Parenthesis