Suppose that your friend plans to become a professional drummer and only 2% of all people who want to become professional drummers actually achieve this goal. In addition, suppose that he has "connections," and 80% of all successful drummers have connections like his. Only 10% of unsuccessful drummers have the same sort of connections. This means that his probability of success would increase slightly above 2%.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Having connections significantly increases the likelihood of success in many professional fields, including music. Since 80% of successful drummers have connections and only 10% of unsuccessful drummers do, his connections make him more likely to be in the successful group, thus slightly increasing his chances above the base rate of 2%.

Suppose That Your Friend Plans to Become a Professional Drummer