PISA: A documentary was broadcast about earthquakes and how often they occur. It included a discussion about the predictability of earthquakes. A geologist stated: "In the next twenty years, the chance that an earthquake will occur in Zed City is two out of three." Which of the following best reflects the meaning of the geologist's statement ?
A)⅔ × 20 = 13.3, so between 13 and 14 years from now there will be an earthquake in Zed City.
B)⅔ is more than ½, so you can be sure there will be an earthquake in Zed City.
C)The likelihood that there will be an earthquake in Zed City at some time during the next 20 years is higher than the likelihood of no earthquake.
D)You cannot tell what will happen, because nobody can be sure when an earthquake will occur.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The geologist's statement indicates that the probability of an earthquake occurring in Zed City in the next 20 years is higher than the probability of no earthquake. This does not provide a specific timeline or guarantee that an earthquake will occur, but it suggests that there is a higher likelihood of it happening than not. Option A assumes a linear relationship between probabilities and time, which is not necessarily accurate. Option B overgeneralizes the statement and is not a valid interpretation. Option D is partially true but does not fully capture the meaning of the statement.

PISA: a Documentary Was Broadcast About Earthquakes and How Often