Malcolm has been watching a roulette-type game at a local charity bazaar. The game has only ten numbers on the wheel, and every number except 8 has come up as a winner during the last 15 minutes. Malcolm decides to bet $10 on number 8, because it has to come up eventually. In this case, Malcolm is showing evidence of the
A)availability heuristic.
B)gambler's fallacy.
C)base rate fallacy.
D)conjunction fallacy.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Malcolm is demonstrating the gambler's fallacy, which is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or vice versa. In this case, he incorrectly assumes that because number 8 hasn't come up yet, it is due to appear soon.

Malcolm Has Been Watching a Roulette-Type Game at a Local