Suppose within a short span of time, people in a certain town realize that there is an unusually high rate of leukemia among children in their town.Suppose someone calculated the odds of having that many cases in such a short time to be 1 in 15,000.Which of the following immediate conclusions would not be correct?
A)Since the chance is only 1 out of 15,000, something in this town has to be causing our children to get sick.We need to take immediate action.
B)We should expect this phenomenon to happen in about 1 out of every 15,000 towns similar to this one, just by chance.There is no cause for alarm just yet.
C)It would be unusual if we did not occasionally see clusters of disease such as this one; this town may just be unlucky.Let's wait until more data is collected.
D)We should keep an eye on the situation but there is no reason to panic.This could very well be just a coincidence.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The conclusion that "something in this town has to be causing our children to get sick. We need to take immediate action" is not necessarily correct based solely on the odds calculation. While the odds of such a high rate of leukemia may be low, it is still possible that it occurred by chance. More data and investigation would be needed to determine if there is a causal factor in the town.

Suppose Within a Short Span of Time, People in a Certain