You ask several of your friends to rate the likelihood of the following statements: (1) There will be a flood in British Columbia, (2) There will be an earthquake in British Columbia that causes a flood. Almost all of your friends rate statement (2) as more likely. These likelihood estimates are _____________ and illustrate the use of _____________.
A)correct; inductive reasoning
B)incorrect; the representativeness heuristic
C)correct; the availability heuristic
D)incorrect; a confirmation bias

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

These likelihood estimates are incorrect because the probability of two events happening together (an earthquake causing a flood) is always less than or equal to the probability of either event happening alone. This illustrates the use of the representativeness heuristic, where people judge the probability of an event by how much it seems to represent, or match, existing prototypes in their minds, leading them to overestimate the likelihood of conjunctive events.

You Ask Several of Your Friends to Rate the Likelihood