As project manager at Gonzaga Contracting, you currently have a major project nearing completion, but are concerned about the delivery of the roofing materials needed to complete the project.Ace roofing, your main supplier, may need to first deliver materials to another of its clients.You put the chance of that happening at 30%.You believe that if Ace has to first deliver to its other client, there's a 60% chance that you will not get your delivery in time to complete your project on schedule.If Ace does not have to first deliver to its other client, you estimate that the chance that you will not get your delivery in time to finish on schedule falls to 10%.Determine the likelihood that you will not get the roofing delivery in time to finish on schedule.
A).50
B).18
C).06
D).25
E).03

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The likelihood of not getting the roofing delivery in time can be calculated using the law of total probability. The probability of not getting the delivery on time if Ace has to deliver to another client first is 30% * 60% = 18%. The probability of not getting the delivery on time if Ace does not have to deliver to another client first is 70% * 10% = 7%. Adding these probabilities gives 18% + 7% = 25%.

As Project Manager at Gonzaga Contracting, You Currently Have a Major