A local project being analyzed by PERT has 42 activities, 13 of which are on the critical path. If the estimated time along the critical path is 105 days with a project variance of 25, the probability that the project will be completed in 95 days or less is
A) -0.4
B) 0.0228
C) 0.3444
D) 0.9772
E) 4.2

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The probability that the project will be completed in 95 days or less can be found using the Z-score formula in project management: Z = (X - μ) / σ, where X is the desired project completion time (95 days), μ is the mean or expected project completion time (105 days), and σ is the standard deviation of the project completion time. The standard deviation is the square root of the variance, which is √25 = 5. Plugging in the values: Z = (95 - 105) / 5 = -10 / 5 = -2. A Z-score of -2 corresponds to a probability of 0.0228, indicating a 2.28% chance of completing the project in 95 days or less.

A Local Project Being Analyzed by PERT Has 42 Activities