For a forecast to show skill it must
A) be better than one based on persistence or climatology.
B) be accurate to within 2$\degree$C of the predicted temperature.
C) be accurate for over more than 90 percent of the forecast area.
D) use the analog method of forecasting.
E) use a probability.

Question

​For a forecast to show skill it must
A) ​be better than one based on persistence or climatology.
B) ​be accurate to within 2$\degree$C of the predicted temperature.
C) ​be accurate for over more than 90 percent of the forecast area.
D) ​use the analog method of forecasting.
E) ​use a probability.

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

A forecast showing skill would be one that is better than a forecast based on persistence (just assuming the conditions will stay the same) or climatology (historical averages). Therefore, option A is the best choice. Option B gives a specific range for accuracy that is not necessarily a requirement for a forecast to show skill. Option C gives a percentage which is not always the best measure of skill. Option D mentions a specific forecasting method that could be effective but is not a requirement for a forecast to show skill. Option E mentions probability, which is a useful tool for indicating uncertainty in a forecast, but is not the only measure of skill.

​For a Forecast to Show Skill It Must A) ​Be °\degree°

For a Forecast to Show Skill It Must
A) Be $\degree$