Question 1

Zeke sees someone at the grocery store who looks like a famous movie actor. He assumes it really is the actor and overlooks the fact that about 1% of all adult men look a little like that actor. What error has Zeke made?

Accepted Answer

Zeke has failed to consider base-rate information, which is the statistical probability of the occurrence of an event based on prior knowledge or experience. In this case, the base-rate information would be the fact that only about 1% of adult men look a little like the famous movie actor. Instead, Zeke relied on the representativeness heuristic, which refers to making judgments based on how much something resembles a typical case, rather than considering statistical probabilities.

Question 2

Most people tend to consider themselves better than average, or at least average, drivers. We do so because when we think of other drivers we most easily remember unusually bad drivers, and compare ourselves to them. In other words, we make a decision based on

Accepted Answer

The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut in which we make decisions based on examples that come most easily to mind or are most readily available. When people consider themselves better drivers than others, they are likely using the availability heuristic by recalling negative examples or accidents they have witnessed, and comparing those to their own driving abilities.

Question 3

Dr. Cutter finds that 90 percent of all people who need brain surgery have dandruff, while only 10 percent of all people with healthy brains have dandruff. He therefore recommends brain surgery for everyone with dandruff. What error is he making?

Accepted Answer

Dr. Cutter is failing to consider the base rate of healthy brains versus those who need brain surgery. Just because a person has dandruff, it doesn't mean that they need brain surgery. The base rate information would help to determine the actual probability and necessity of brain surgery for those with dandruff.

Question 4

Critical thinking can best be defined as

Accepted Answer

Critical thinking involves carefully evaluating evidence and arguments to determine the strength of a conclusion. It requires an analytical and logical approach to problem-solving, rather than relying on intuition or assumptions. Choice B is more closely related to the concept of goal-setting and planning, while Choice C refers to creativity and innovation. Choice D is not a recognized term in the field of critical thinking.

Question 5

Base-rate information is information about

Accepted Answer

Base-rate information refers to information about the prevalence of a particular event or behavior in a population. It is often related to how rare or common something is. Options A, C, and D do not accurately describe base-rate information.

Question 6

People who rely on the representativeness heuristic tend to overlook which kind of information?

Accepted Answer

People who rely on the representativeness heuristic tend to overlook base-rate information, which is information about how frequently an event occurs in a population. They instead focus on how well an event or person matches a typical prototype or stereotype.

Question 7

You know there are only two librarians who live in your town of 10,000 people. However, when you meet a quiet young woman who likes to read, you decide she is probably a librarian. In your thinking you are relying on

Accepted Answer

The decision to assume the young woman is a librarian based solely on her enjoyment of reading is an example of the representativeness heuristic, which involves making judgments based on how closely something matches our prototype or stereotype of a particular category. While algorithms involve a set of defined steps or rules to solve a problem, the Stroop effect refers to the interference of conflicting information in the brain, and a cognitive map is a mental representation of one's environment. None of these concepts apply to the scenario presented.

Question 8

A radar operator is trying to determine whether something on the screen is a hawk or a missile. Before deciding, the operator should consider which of the two is more common. In other words, the operator should consider

Accepted Answer

The best choice is base-rate information because it is important to consider how common each option is before making a decision. This allows the operator to make a more informed and accurate decision. Heuristics may be used, but they can also lead to biases and errors in decision-making. The prototype and cognitive map are not relevant to this situation.

Question 9

You are quite sure that it rains every time you wash your car. In fact, this is probably not true, but it is most related to which heuristic?

Accepted Answer

This is related to the availability heuristic, which is the tendency to judge the frequency or likelihood of an event based on how easily examples of it come to mind. In this case, every time the person washes their car and it rains afterward, that event is easily recalled and therefore seems more common than it actually is.

Question 10

Audrey sees someone sitting in a fast-food restaurant who looks like the President of the United States. Before she goes over to ask for an autograph and offer her advice on the world situation, she should consider the base-rate information. That is, she should consider

Accepted Answer

Considering how many other people look like the president is important because the probability of someone actually being the president is very low, even in a fast-food restaurant in Washington D.C. Additionally, it is important to note that mistaking someone else for the president could be embarrassing or potentially dangerous.

Question 11

The availability heuristic is based on the assumption that

Accepted Answer

The availability heuristic is the tendency to judge the likelihood or frequency of an event based on how easily instances or examples of it come to mind. So, if we can easily remember a few examples of some event, we tend to believe it as a common event, which is the basis of the availability heuristic. Choice A is incorrect because the availability heuristic is not based on asking questions in the proper manner. Choice B is incorrect because the more common category is not always the default assumption. Choice C is incorrect because much evidence for a hypothesis, and no evidence against it, does not necessarily make it true.

Question 12

The term "base-rate information" refers to information about

Accepted Answer

Base-rate information refers to information about how rare or common something is. It does not refer to the percentage of available information supporting a theory, the relationship between learning and performance, or how well someone can perform a given task.

Question 13

Someone who overlooks base-rate information is likely to make which kind of error?

Accepted Answer

Overlooking base-rate information means ignoring the frequency or probability of events, which can lead to mistaking a common event for a rare one. Therefore, the error associated with ignoring base rates is identifying some common event as if it were some other, rare event. A) accepting too large a risk of losing a large amount may be the result of overestimating the probability of a rare event. B) accepting the first hypothesis considered and rejecting all others may be a result of confirmation bias or premature closure. C) being excessively cautious about making any decision at all is not necessarily related to overlooking base rates.

Question 14

People sometimes form a stereotype about members of a certain group because they remember a few people who fit the stereotype and forget those who do not fit it. Reasoning of this type is an example of the

Accepted Answer

The situation described in the question is an example of the availability heuristic, which is a mental shortcut where people judge the likelihood or frequency of an event based on how easily examples of it come to mind. In this case, people remember a few individuals who fit a stereotype, which makes those examples more accessible in memory and leads them to overestimate how representative those individuals are of the entire group.

Question 15

People are most likely to be overconfident in the accuracy of their predictions when predicting

Accepted Answer

People are more likely to be overconfident about their own abilities and accomplishments compared to others or events. This is because they have more control over their own actions and outcomes, leading to a higher perceived sense of mastery and confidence in their predictions.

Question 16

Someone sees a strange-looking flying object. It might be a white pelican, or it might be a UFO from outer space. The viewer decides that it is a UFO. Assuming that it really was a pelican, which mistake of reasoning has the viewer made?

Accepted Answer

The viewer failed to consider base-rate information, which involves neglecting the relative frequency of different events in decision-making. In this case, the viewer did not consider how much more likely it is to see a bird (like a pelican) than a UFO.

Question 17

Some people believe Friday the 13th is unlucky because they can remember times when they had bad experiences on that day but tend to forget times when nothing bad happened. Their reasoning is an example of illusory correlations. It is also an example of the use of

Accepted Answer

The reasoning of believing in the unluckiness of Friday the 13th due to remembering bad experiences while forgetting the good ones is an example of the availability heuristic, which is a mental shortcut where people make judgments based on the ease with which examples come to mind.

Question 18

Which of the following is an example of base-rate information?

Accepted Answer

Base-rate information refers to general information about a population or group. In this case, the statement about the population consisting of 10,000 mosquitoes and 2 rare kwiny bugs provides base-rate information. The other options provide specific information about individual mosquitoes or kwiny bugs, but not about the population as a whole.

Question 19

Because it is easier to think of words that start with "k" than words that have "k" as the third letter, most people assume that our language has more words starting with "k" than words with "k" in the third position. That kind of reasoning is an example of

Accepted Answer

The reasoning given is an example of the availability heuristic, which involves making judgments based on the ease with which examples come to mind. In this case, the ease of coming up with words that start with "k" leads people to overestimate the frequency of such words in the language.

Question 20

Critical thinking involves

Accepted Answer

Critical thinking involves weighing and evaluating evidence both for and against a conclusion before making a judgment or decision. Option A correctly reflects this process, while options B, C, and D do not consider the need to evaluate evidence from multiple perspectives.

Quiz 8: Cognition and Language