Democratic Transition Game
Consider the case that you are a soft-liner in an authoritarian regime who would like to introduce a policy of liberalization. Your goal is to co-opt the opposition into a broadened dictatorship, not to transition to democracy. You are a dictator, not a democrat!
1. If you open and civil society enters, then you achieve your objective of a Broadened Dictatorship.
2. If you open and civil society organizes, then you need to decide whether to democratize and become a full democracy or to repress.
3. A successful repression will lead to a narrow dictatorship, whereas an unsuccessful repression will lead to insurgency.
4. Repression is successful only if civil society is weak.
Figure 1

Figure 2

-Based on your answers to questions about the outcomes of the games shown in Figures 1 and 2 , is it possible to get a transition to democracy in a situation with complete information?

Question

Democratic Transition Game
Consider the case that you are a soft-liner in an authoritarian regime who would like to introduce a policy of liberalization. Your goal is to co-opt the opposition into a broadened dictatorship, not to transition to democracy. You are a dictator, not a democrat!
1. If you open and civil society enters, then you achieve your objective of a Broadened Dictatorship.
2. If you open and civil society organizes, then you need to decide whether to democratize and become a full democracy or to repress.
3. A successful repression will lead to a narrow dictatorship, whereas an unsuccessful repression will lead to insurgency.
4. Repression is successful only if civil society is weak.
Figure 1
  
Figure 2
 
-Based on your answers to questions about the outcomes of the games shown in Figures 1 and 2 , is it possible to get a transition to democracy in a situation with complete information?

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

The goal of the soft-liner is not to transition to democracy, but to co-opt the opposition into a broadened dictatorship. In Figure 1, opening leads to civil society entering and achieving the objective of a broadened dictatorship. In Figure 2, opening leads to civil society organizing, which presents the soft-liner with the choice of either democratizing or repressing. Thus, in both cases, the objective is not to transition to democracy. Therefore, it is not possible to get a transition to democracy in a situation with complete information as the soft-liner's goal is to maintain a dictatorship.

Democratic Transition Game Consider the Case That You Are a Soft-Liner in an Soft-Liner