Democratic Transition Game
Consider the case that you are a soft-liner in an authoritarian regime who would like to introduce a policy of liberalization. Your goal is to co-opt the opposition into a broadened dictatorship, not to transition to democracy. You are a dictator, not a democrat!
1. If you open and civil society enters, then you achieve your objective of a Broadened Dictatorship.
2. If you open and civil society organizes, then you need to decide whether to democratize and become a full democracy or to repress.
3. A successful repression will lead to a narrow dictatorship, whereas an unsuccessful repression will lead to insurgency.
4. Repression is successful only if civil society is weak.
Figure 1

Figure 2

-The game tree in Figure 2, is associated with the game in which you are sure that civil society is STRONG. Solve the game by backward induction. What is the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium?
A) Do nothing
B) Do nothing, Democratize; Enter
C) Do nothing, Democratize; Organize
D) Open, Repress; Enter
E) Open, Democratize; Organize

Question

Democratic Transition Game
Consider the case that you are a soft-liner in an authoritarian regime who would like to introduce a policy of liberalization. Your goal is to co-opt the opposition into a broadened dictatorship, not to transition to democracy. You are a dictator, not a democrat!
1. If you open and civil society enters, then you achieve your objective of a Broadened Dictatorship.
2. If you open and civil society organizes, then you need to decide whether to democratize and become a full democracy or to repress.
3. A successful repression will lead to a narrow dictatorship, whereas an unsuccessful repression will lead to insurgency.
4. Repression is successful only if civil society is weak.
Figure 1
  
Figure 2
 
-The game tree in Figure 2, is associated with the game in which you are sure that civil society is STRONG. Solve the game by backward induction. What is the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium?
A) Do nothing 
B) Do nothing, Democratize; Enter 
C) Do nothing, Democratize; Organize 
D) Open, Repress; Enter 
E) Open, Democratize; Organize

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Backward induction involves solving the game from the end to the beginning. Given that civil society is strong, the optimal strategy for the government is to democratize if civil society organizes, as repression would lead to a worse outcome. Therefore, the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium is "Do nothing, Democratize; Organize."

Democratic Transition Game Consider the Case That You Are a Soft-Liner in an Soft-Liner