Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model produced the following tables: The forecasting model is ___. A)y_t = 5.745787 + 0.062849 y_t-1+ 0.065709 y_t-2 B)y_t = 4.85094 - 0.10434 y_t-1+ 0.962669 y_t-2 C)y_t = 0.84426 - 1.66023 y_t-1+ 14.65023 y_t-2 D)y_t = 0.40299 + 0.103822 y_t-1+ 9.y_t-2 E)y_t = 0.40299 + 0.103822 y_t-1- 9.y_t-2

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Based on the given tables, the autoregressive model equation can be written as:
yS1U1B1tS1U1B0 = a + b1*yS1U1B1t-1S1U1B0S1U1B1 + b2*yS1U1B1t-2S1U1B0
The coefficients for b1 and b2 can be found in the table labeled "Coefficients". In this table, the row labeled "yS1U1B1t-1S1U1B0S1U1B1" gives the coefficient for b1 (which is -0.10434) and the row labeled "yS1U1B1t-2S1U1B0" gives the coefficient for b2 (which is 0.962669). The constant term (a) can be found in the table labeled "Residuals". In this table, the row labeled "Intercept" gives the value for a (which is 4.85094). Therefore, the autoregressive model equation is:
yS1U1B1tS1U1B0 = 4.85094 - 0.10434*yS1U1B1t-1S1U1B0S1U1B1 + 0.962669*yS1U1B1t-2S1U1B0. 
This corresponds to choice B.

Analysis of Data for an Autoregressive Forecasting Model Produced the Following