Question 1

TABLE 16-10
The manager of a marketing consulting firm has been examining his company's yearly profits. He believes that these profits have been showing a quadratic trend since 1990. He uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is profit (in thousands of dollars), while the independent variables are coded years and squared of coded years, where 1990 is coded as 0, 1991 is coded as 1, etc.
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
  
-Referring to Table 16-10, the forecast for profits in 2010 is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-10
The manager of a marketing consulting...

Question 2

TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 2003 to 2008 were:
  Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs:
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2S1U1P1ndS1S1P0 Order Model
  SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1S1U1P1stS1S1P0 Order Model
 
-Referring to Table 16-11, the fitted values for the second-order autoregressive model are ________, ________, ________, and ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from...

Question 3

TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 2003 to 2008 were:
  Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs:
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2S1U1P1ndS1S1P0 Order Model
  SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1S1U1P1stS1S1P0 Order Model
 
-Referring to Table 16-11, the values of the MAD for the two models indicate that the first-order model should be used for forecasting.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from...

Question 4

TABLE 16-10
The manager of a marketing consulting firm has been examining his company's yearly profits. He believes that these profits have been showing a quadratic trend since 1990. He uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is profit (in thousands of dollars), while the independent variables are coded years and squared of coded years, where 1990 is coded as 0, 1991 is coded as 1, etc.
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
  
-Referring to Table 16-10, the fitted value for 1995 is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-10
The manager of a marketing consulting...

Question 5

TABLE 16-12
The manager of a health club has recorded average attendance in newly introduced step classes over the last 15 months: 32.1, 39.5, 40.3, 46.0, 65.2, 73.1, 83.7, 106.8, 118.0, 133.1, 163.3, 182.8, 205.6, 249.1, and 263.5. She then used Microsoft Excel to obtain the following partial output for both a first- and second-order autoregressive model.
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2S1U1P1ndS1S1P0 Order Model
Regression Statistics
   SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1S1U1P1stS1S1P0 Order Model
Regression Statistics
  
-Referring to Table 16-12, using the second-order model, the forecast of average attendance for month 16 is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-12
The manager of a health club...

Question 6

TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 2003 to 2008 were:
  Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs:
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2S1U1P1ndS1S1P0 Order Model
  SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1S1U1P1stS1S1P0 Order Model
 
-Referring to Table 16-11, the residuals for the first-order autoregressive model are ________, ________, ________, ________, and ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from...

Question 7

TABLE 16-12
The manager of a health club has recorded average attendance in newly introduced step classes over the last 15 months: 32.1, 39.5, 40.3, 46.0, 65.2, 73.1, 83.7, 106.8, 118.0, 133.1, 163.3, 182.8, 205.6, 249.1, and 263.5. She then used Microsoft Excel to obtain the following partial output for both a first- and second-order autoregressive model.
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2S1U1P1ndS1S1P0 Order Model
Regression Statistics
   SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1S1U1P1stS1S1P0 Order Model
Regression Statistics
  
-Referring to Table 16-12, using the first-order model, the forecast of average attendance for month 16 is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-12
The manager of a health club...

Question 8

Microsoft Excel was used to obtain the following quadratic trend equation: Sales = 100 - 10X + 15X². The data used was from 1999 through 2008, coded 0 to 9. The forecast for 2009 is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Microsoft Excel was used to obtain the...

Question 9

A second-order autoregressive model for average mortgage rate is:
  If the average mortgage rate in 2008 was 7.0, and in 2007 was 6.4, the forecast for 2010 is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of A second-order autoregressive model for average mortgage...

Question 10

A first-order autoregressive model for stock sales is:
  If sales in 2008 is 6000, the forecast of sales for 2009 is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of A first-order autoregressive model for stock sales...

Question 11

TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 2003 to 2008 were:
  Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs:
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2S1U1P1ndS1S1P0 Order Model
  SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1S1U1P1stS1S1P0 Order Model
 
-Referring to Table 16-11, the residuals for the second-order autoregressive model are ________, ________, ________, and ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from...

Question 12

TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 2003 to 2008 were:
  Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs:
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2S1U1P1ndS1S1P0 Order Model
  SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1S1U1P1stS1S1P0 Order Model
 
-Referring to Table 16-11, the fitted values for the first-order autoregressive model are ________, ________, ________, ________, and ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from...

Question 13

TABLE 16-12
The manager of a health club has recorded average attendance in newly introduced step classes over the last 15 months: 32.1, 39.5, 40.3, 46.0, 65.2, 73.1, 83.7, 106.8, 118.0, 133.1, 163.3, 182.8, 205.6, 249.1, and 263.5. She then used Microsoft Excel to obtain the following partial output for both a first- and second-order autoregressive model.
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2S1U1P1ndS1S1P0 Order Model
Regression Statistics
   SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1S1U1P1stS1S1P0 Order Model
Regression Statistics
  
-Referring to Table 16-12, using the second-order model, the forecast of average attendance for month 17 is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-12
The manager of a health club...

Question 14

TABLE 16-12
The manager of a health club has recorded average attendance in newly introduced step classes over the last 15 months: 32.1, 39.5, 40.3, 46.0, 65.2, 73.1, 83.7, 106.8, 118.0, 133.1, 163.3, 182.8, 205.6, 249.1, and 263.5. She then used Microsoft Excel to obtain the following partial output for both a first- and second-order autoregressive model.
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2S1U1P1ndS1S1P0 Order Model
Regression Statistics
   SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1S1U1P1stS1S1P0 Order Model
Regression Statistics
  
-Referring to Table 16-12, using the first-order model, the forecast of average attendance for month 17 is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-12
The manager of a health club...

Question 15

A second-order autoregressive model for average mortgage rate is:
  If the average mortgage rate in 2008 was 7.0, and in 2007 was 6.4, the forecast for 2009 is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of A second-order autoregressive model for average mortgage...

Question 16

TABLE 16-12
The manager of a health club has recorded average attendance in newly introduced step classes over the last 15 months: 32.1, 39.5, 40.3, 46.0, 65.2, 73.1, 83.7, 106.8, 118.0, 133.1, 163.3, 182.8, 205.6, 249.1, and 263.5. She then used Microsoft Excel to obtain the following partial output for both a first- and second-order autoregressive model.
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2S1U1P1ndS1S1P0 Order Model
Regression Statistics
   SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1S1U1P1stS1S1P0 Order Model
Regression Statistics
  
-Referring to Table 16-12, based on the parsimony principle, the second-order model is the better model for making forecasts.

Accepted Answer

The table does not provide any information about the forecast accuracy of the two models. The parsimony principle suggests choosing the simpler model when two models have similar forecast accuracy. Therefore, without more information about the forecast accuracy of the two models, it is impossible to determine which model is better based solely on the parsimony principle.

Question 17

The manager of a company believed that her company's profits were following an exponential trend. She used Microsoft Excel to obtain a prediction equation for the logarithm (base 10) of profits:
  The data she used were from 2003 through 2008, coded 0 to 5. The forecast for 2009 profits is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of The manager of a company believed that...

Question 18

TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 2003 to 2008 were:
  Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs:
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2S1U1P1ndS1S1P0 Order Model
  SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1S1U1P1stS1S1P0 Order Model
 
-Referring to Table 16-11, the value of the MAD for the second-order autoregressive model is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from...

Question 19

TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from 2003 to 2008 were:
  Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs:
SUMMARY OUTPUT - 2S1U1P1ndS1S1P0 Order Model
  SUMMARY OUTPUT - 1S1U1P1stS1S1P0 Order Model
 
-Referring to Table 16-11, the value of the MAD for the first-order autoregressive model is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-11
Business closures in Laramie, Wyoming from...

Question 20

TABLE 16-10
The manager of a marketing consulting firm has been examining his company's yearly profits. He believes that these profits have been showing a quadratic trend since 1990. He uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is profit (in thousands of dollars), while the independent variables are coded years and squared of coded years, where 1990 is coded as 0, 1991 is coded as 1, etc.
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
  
-Referring to Table 16-10, the forecast for profits in 2015 is ________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of TABLE 16-10
The manager of a marketing consulting...

Quiz 16: Time-Series Analysis and Index Numbers

Microsoft Excel was used to obtain the following quadratic trend equation: Sales = 100 - 10X + 15X2. The data used was from 1999 through 2008, coded 0 to 9. The forecast for 2009 is ________.

A second-order autoregressive model for average mortgage rate is: If the average mortgage rate in 2008 was 7.0, and in 2007 was 6.4, the forecast for 2010 is ________.

A first-order autoregressive model for stock sales is: If sales in 2008 is 6000, the forecast of sales for 2009 is ________.

A second-order autoregressive model for average mortgage rate is: If the average mortgage rate in 2008 was 7.0, and in 2007 was 6.4, the forecast for 2009 is ________.

The manager of a company believed that her company's profits were following an exponential trend. She used Microsoft Excel to obtain a prediction equation for the logarithm (base 10) of profits: The data she used were from 2003 through 2008, coded 0 to 5. The forecast for 2009 profits is ________.

Microsoft Excel was used to obtain the following quadratic trend equation: Sales = 100 - 10X + 15X². The data used was from 1999 through 2008, coded 0 to 9. The forecast for 2009 is ________.