Managing Engineering and Technology Study Set 1

Business

Quiz 4 :

Planning and Forecasting

Quiz 4 :

Planning and Forecasting

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In question 4-1, what sales would you forecast for 2013, using the simple regression (least squares) method?
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Regression analysis is a forecasting technique which considers that, there exist linear relationship between dependent and independent variable.
Consider the data of sales of a company given below:
img Find constants
img and
img using following formulas:
img img img Here,
img img Find forecast using following formula:
img Here,
img Now write formulas in excel as shown below to find forecast:
img The result is shown below:
img Therefore, using simple regression method forecast of sales for 2013 is 92,500.
img img img

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Pick a company with which you are familiar, and estimate from its actions what the objectives of its management appear to be in each of Drucker's eight "key result areas."
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To answer this problem, look at the operations of company X while paying special attention to each of the eight "key result areas".
The eight areas are market share, innovation, productivity and quality, physical and financial resources, manager performance and development, worker performance and attitude, profitability, and social responsibility.
Company X is currently seeking to develop a new innovative product which can be observed from its increased expenditures in research and development. This indicates that company X is seeking to attain a greater degree of market share by investing in innovation.
Company X's investments into research and development are aimed at developing new automation techniques that can help its manufacturing plant to achieve a greater level of productivity. Currently, the company is attempting to lean its operations, thus its physical resources are being reduced, but its financial resources are being increased.
With regards to manager and worker performance, the company is investing in training program to improve the performance of its employees.
The mentioned factors are adversely affecting the profitability of the company in short-term, however, the investments that are currently being made will lead to higher profitability.
The company is also actively involved in social activities.

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Cite an example (similar to Xerox and Osborne's computer) showing the difficulty of transforming a technical idea into a successful product (innovation).
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An example of the difficulty of transforming a technical idea into a successful product or innovation is a steam engine produced by James Watt's.
This was a critical innovation for Industrial Revolution and was based on creating a device that could create mechanical motion from the power of steam.

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In question 4-1, taking actual 2009 sales of $48,000 as the forecast for 2010, what sales would you forecast for 2011, 2012, and 2013, using exponential smoothing and a weight on actual values of (a) 0.4 and (b) 0.8?
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Briefly outline the concept of management by objectives and the steps involved in implementing this technique in organizations.
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Select a company whose apparent mission or purpose has changed over the course of its history, and describe the change.
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Develop your own model of the steps in the planning process.
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For what types of employees or positions do you think management by objectives should prove particularly effective? Ineffective?
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Select a company or industry for which the strategic management of technology is important. Describe some of the base, key, and pacing technologies that are important for their strategic management of technology.
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Using exponential smoothing with a weight of 0.6 on actual values: (a) If sales are $45,000 and $50,000 for 2010 and 2011, what would you forecast for 2012? (The first forecast is equal to the actual value of the preceding year.) (b) Given this forecast and actual 2012 sales of $53,000, what would you then forecast for 2013?
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Sales of a particular product (in thousands of dollars) for the years 2009 through 2012 have been $48,000, $64,000, $67,000, and $83,000, respectively. (a) What sales would you predict for 2013, using a simple four-year moving average? (b) What sales would you predict for 2013, using a weighted moving average with weights of 0.50 for the immediate preceding year and 0.3, 0.15, and 0.05 for the three years before that?
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For a given product and company (such as automobiles from Ford), list a set of premises (assumptions) regarding such matters as the economy, competition, materials, labor, customer demand, and others, that should govern their planning over the next five years.
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Some say planning has primacy among the managerial functions. Make a case for this statement.
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What length of planning horizon would you recommend for planning (a) the forest resources of a large paper company, (b) the construction of a new automobile plant, and (c) the creation of a new housing development of 15 homes?
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Create an extended list of the plans and decisions for a large manufacturing company that will depend on the sales forecast for the next year.
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