Deck 10: Evaluating Causal Arguments

Question 1

Write a Complete Analysis plus Evaluation for each of the following passages

-A study at UCLA suggests that searching online could be beneficial for the brain of older adults. The researchers studied 24 people between the ages of 55-78. The participants were divided into two groups: one that had minimal computer experience and another that was Web savvy. Members of the technologically advanced group had more than twice the neural activation than their less experienced counterparts while searching online. The only difference between the two groups was their technological experience. Thus, since online searching improved neural activity in the participants of this study, it is likely that online searching will improve neural activity for all older adults.-cnn.com

Answer 1

This passage from cnn.com contains an argument. This issue is whether online searching will improve neural activity for all older adults. The conclusion is that online searching will improve neural activity for all older adults. The premise is that online searching improved neural activity in the participants of a recent study of 24 people between the ages of 55-78 at UCLA.
This passage contains a subargument. The intermediate conclusion is that online searching improved neural activity in the participants of a recent study of 24 people between the ages of 55-78 at UCLA. The first premise is that members of the technologically advanced group in the study at UCLA had more than twice the neural activation than their less experienced counterparts while searching online. The second premise is that the only difference between the two groups of participants in the UCLA study of neural activity was their technological experience.
The argument is an inductive generalization. The argument is weak because the sample size is small and there is no indication that the sample is representative of the target.
A study at UCLA suggests that 1. searching online could be beneficial for the brain of older adults. 2. The researchers studied 24 people between the ages of 55-78. 3. The participants were divided into two groups: one that had minimal computer experience and another that was Web savvy. 4.Members of the technologically advanced group had more than twice the neural activation than their less experienced counterparts while searching online. 5. The only difference between the two groups was their technological experience. Thus, since 6. online searching improved neural activity in the participants of this study, it is likely that 1. online searching will improve neural activity for all older adults.

Question 2

Write a Complete Analysis plus Evaluation for each of the following passages

-The stock market lost 10% of its value last week. Why is that? It appears that the cause was the closure of the Suez Canal, since that was the only factor that was different from the previous week where stock prices were at record highs. No major oil exporting nations lowered exports, no major refiners were experiencing slowdowns, and no major crises were taking place elsewhere in the world.

Answer 2

This passage contains an argument. The issue is whether the cause of the stock market losing 10% of its value last week was the closure of the Suez Canal. The conclusion is that the cause of the stock market losing 10% of its value last week was the closure of the Suez Canal. The first premise is that the stock market lost 10% of its value last week. The second premise is that the closing of the Suez Canal was the only factor that was different from the previous week where stock prices were at record highs.
This passage contains a subargument. The intermediate conclusion is that the closing of the Suez Canal was the only factor that was different from the previous week where stock prices were at record highs. The first premise is that no major oil exporting nations lowered exports during the week that the stock market fell by 10%. The second premise is that no major refiners were experiencing slowdowns during the week that the stock market fell by 10%. The third premise is that no major crises were taking place elsewhere in the world during the week that the stock market fell by 10%.
This argument is an inductive causal argument. The argument is strong, because it gives evidence that the closing of the Suez Canal was the only possible cause of the stock market losing 10% of its value.
1. The stock market lost 10% of its value last week. Why is that? 2. It appears that the cause was the closure of the Suez Canal, since 3.that was the only factor that was different from the previous week where stock prices were at record highs. 4. No major oil exporting nations lowered exports, 5. no major refiners were experiencing slowdowns, and 6. no major crises were taking place elsewhere in the world.

Question 3

Which causal argument is stronger?

A) The swim team had better overall results in their last meet. It seems likely that the reason for the good performance was taking a day off from practice right before the meet. This was the only difference between their practice sessions for this meet and other meets-they maintained the same practice schedule every other day in the week. Thus, taking a day off before the meet must have caused the improved swim team performance.
B) The swim team had better overall results in their last meet. It seems likely that the reason for the good performance was taking a day off from practice right before the meet. This was the only difference between their practice sessions for this meet and other meets. Thus, taking a day off before the meet must have caused the improved swim team performance.

Answer 3

A

Question 4

Write a Complete Analysis plus Evaluation for each of the following passages

-Teachers will not get cost-of-living raises this year unless other state employees get raises. Given that other state employees will not be getting raises of any kind due to the fact that state legislators have declared a moratorium on state wage hikes, teachers will not be getting cost-of-living raises this year.

Question 5

Quentin Tarantino's new movie is not doing well at the box office. The cause must be the lack of violence because all his previous movies had loads of violence, and this one has none.

Question 6

I was having trouble comprehending what I was reading for class. I decided to try something different: reading the text aloud. Amazingly, my comprehension was much better. Clearly, reading aloud improved my reading comprehension.

Question 7

Which causal argument is stronger?

A) There's at least one good thing coming from widespread unemployment. More people are taking college courses. A study of college attendance in twelve counties with the lowest employment numbers showed that each had large enrollment numbers for the last two semesters. This is the only possible cause common to all twelve counties, since they had different income levels, different percentages of high school graduates, and different rates of previous college attendance.
B) There's at least one good thing coming from widespread unemployment. More people are taking college courses. A study of college attendance in twelve counties with the lowest employment numbers showed that each had large enrollment numbers for the last two semesters. This is the only possible cause common to all twelve counties.

Question 8

It's clear that running with new shoes is what caused Michael's foot to hurt. The shoes were the only thing different between occasions when his foot hurt and when it did not hurt. He ran the same distance, ran on the same course, and stretched the same amount before he ran.

Question 9

Write a Complete Analysis plus Evaluation for each of the following passages

-Painting the Golden Gate Bridge is an ongoing job because the salt air from the ocean rusts and corrodes the steel components.-goldengatebridge.org

Question 10

Which causal argument is stronger?

A) The population of frogs in three California counties has declined dramatically in the last decade. Loss of habitat must be the cause, since increased demand for housing has eliminated more than half of the available wetlands in all three counties, and this appears to be the only factor all three have in common.
B) The population of frogs in three California counties has declined dramatically in the last decade. Loss of habitat must be the cause, since increased demand for housing has eliminated more than half of the available wetlands in all three counties, and this appears to be the only factor all three have in common. Only one county is rural, and only two counties have experienced an increase in frog predators.

Question 11

Which causal argument is stronger?

A) Three local coffee houses have experienced an up-tick in business this quarter. The cause of this welcome change appears to be the new "poetry reading" events each has added.
B) Three local coffee houses have experienced an up-tick in business this quarter. The cause of this welcome change appears to be the new "poetry reading" events each has added. Since the poetry readings are the only possible cause all three coffee houses have in common, it must have been the cause.

Question 12

The peer educator program has been quite effective in reducing the rate of teen pregnancy in two Illinois high schools. This conclusion follows from the fact that the rate of teen pregnancy has fallen in both schools, and both have new peer educator programs.

Question 13

Which causal argument is stronger?

A) In 1952, London experienced the worst smog in its history. What has become known as the Great Smog of 1952 caused the premature death of some 4000 people. Death rates in the weeks and months preceding the event were similar to those of the previous years, but rose dramatically right after the Great Smog.
B) In 1952, London experienced the worst smog in its history. What has become known as the Great Smog of 1952 caused the premature death of some 4000 people. Death rates in the weeks and months preceding the event were similar to those of the previous years, but rose dramatically right after the Great Smog. Some attribute the deaths to an influenza epidemic that same year, but I doubt it.

Question 14

It's clear that Egyptian plain clothes police provocateurs caused the violence in Tahrir Square since the violence in the square resulted from Egyptian police not in uniform.

Question 15

Three of the students in the residence hall had severe headaches last evening. The cause of the headaches must have been breathing paint fumes, since the only thing they had in common was that each of their rooms had been painted during the day.