Deck 11: Judgment, Decision Making, and Types of Thinking

Question 1

People often behave as if the law of small numbers were true rather than the law of large numbers. This is MOST related to the tendency for people to:

A) not take into account the fact that samples vary and that small samples may be especially affected by extreme values.
B) more often incorrectly estimate smaller rather than larger numbers, especially when samples are small.
C) overestimate the occurrence of coincidences, especially personally meaningful ones.
D) inappropriately use the availability heuristic to make estimates with overconfidence about their estimates.

Answer 1

not take into account the fact that samples vary and that small samples may be especially affected by extreme values.

Question 2

Successful nudges, such as requiring people to opt out of volunteering to be an organ donor, often take advantage of the status quo bias, which is people's:

A) tendency to look for options that agree with their prior beliefs.
B) lack of awareness of their usual biases.
C) tendency to not change their initial response.
D) tendency not to be helpful unless they are rewarded.

Answer 2

tendency to not change their initial response.

Question 3

Suppose you guessed and incorrectly answered a multiple-choice question that had five options as possible answers, with each option equally likely and only one correct answer. What is the probability of your guessing the answer INCORRECTLY?

A) p = .75
B) p = .80
C) p = .20
D) p < .05

Answer 3

p = .80

Question 4

Sean goes to a graphologist, whose analysis of Sean's handwriting indicates that he is introverted. Sean concludes that as an introvert he should not join a social group because he will not likely enjoy it. What is the BEST analysis of Sean's decision?

A) The graphologist is using a valid cue, so Sean can trust the analysis to provide him with useful information.
B) Sean may be making a good decision, but he should corroborate the analysis with an analysis from another graphologist.
C) Sean should not use the handwriting analysis from the graphologist to make a decision, because research has shown that the idea that graphology works is a misconception.
D) Because graphology has been shown to lead to reliable and valid personality judgments, Sean is making a good decision.

Question 5

Would you prefer a treatment for a serious disease that is (a) 75% effective and would save 750 lives in 1000 people with the disease or (b) a treatment that would result in the deaths of 250 people out of 1000 with the disease who receive a treatment that is 75% effective in treating the disease? According to research, how do people typically respond to this question?

A) Most people indicate that they prefer option (b) because fewer people would end up dying.
B) People tend to prefer option (a) because they are attracted to risky options.
C) People tend to prefer option (b) because they do not realize the probability is the same for both options and because of how the options are framed.
D) People tend to prefer option (a) because they lack skill in estimating probabilities and they are influenced by how the options are framed.

Question 6

The law of large numbers maintains or implies that:

A) larger random samples will be more representative than smaller samples.
B) over the long run, very low and very high scores or values will often occur.
C) a larger number of researchers is better than a smaller number.
D) regression to the mean is not likely to occur with small samples.

Question 7

People often make judgment errors with _____ when they take an intuitive, nonreflective approach to making difficult judgments.

A) Type 1 thinking
B) Type 2 thinking
C) Type A thinking
D) Type B thinking

Question 8

Suppose you guessed and correctly answered a multiple-choice question that had four options as possible answers, with each option equally likely and only one correct answer. What is the probability of your guessing the answer CORRECTLY?

A) p = .75
B) p = .80
C) p = .25
D) p < .05

Question 9

The folk remedy for a hangover of having a little "hair of the dog that bit you" is an example of the:

A) inappropriate use of the availability heuristic.
B) influence of framing on anchoring and adjustment.
C) inappropriate use of the representativeness heuristic.
D) operation of hindsight bias.

Question 10

After the first unit test in an education class, Professor Jones had students who received high scores study with students who received low scores. On this basis, he assigned Jorge, who scored 91%, to study with Consuela, who scored 65%. On the second test, Professor Jones observed that both Jorge and Consuela scored 75%; on the third test, Jorge scored 78% and Consuela scored 70%. Surprised by these results, the professor wondered if pairing students in this way was a bad strategy. The MOST plausible alternative explanation for these results is that:

A) Jorge's and Consuela's scores were regressing to their means.
B) Professor Jones has been deceived by appearances, biased by the availability heuristic.
C) Professor Jones has fallen prey to the conjunction fallacy.
D) Professor Jones is estimating after the fact, showing hindsight bias.

Question 11

What is the probability of getting heads on the fifth toss of a fair coin when the four previous tosses were all tails?

A) p > .50
B) p = .50
C) p < .50
D) p $\neq$ .50

Question 12

In the terminology of the dual process theory of thinking, which combination of terms goes together?

A) Type 1 thinking using heuristics, intuition, familiarity, and experience
B) Type 2 thinking using heuristics, intuition, familiarity, and experience
C) Type 1 thinking using heuristics, intuition, and a rational-analytic approach
D) Type 2 thinking using heuristics, intuition, and a rational-analytic approach

Question 13

Ali grabs some veggies in the produce section of the grocery store because he wants to eat better and lose weight. Positioned for optimal view in the checkout lane, Ali spies a candy bar. He remembers that he has not had lunch yet and so places it alongside the produce for purchase. How has Ali's decision to buy the candy bar been manipulated?

A) His attention is being anchored and he is not sufficiently adjusting to it.
B) A nudge is being used to take advantage of people's tendency to use Type 1 thinking.
C) The availability heuristic is being used as the candy bar is made available at eye level.
D) Representativeness is being used to get Ali to respond with "like goes with like."

Question 14

When people reason under uncertainty and judge the probability of events, they often use rules of thumb that allow them to take cognitive shortcuts in making judgments. The BEST description of this approach is that people are using:

A) probability theory to make their judgments.
B) heuristics that sometimes lead to errors in judgment.
C) heuristics that never lead to errors in judgment.
D) algorithms that never lead to errors in judgment.

Question 15

Which assumes that "like goes with like"?

A) The self-serving bias
B) The representativeness heuristic
C) Overconfidence and the bias associated with it
D) The availability heuristic

Question 16

Many intelligence (IQ) tests are standardized so that scores are normally distributed, with the highest frequency of people scoring an average of 100 on the test found in the middle of the normal curve for IQ scores. Suppose Kalinda likes books and talking about ideas with her friends. Which is the BEST estimate of Kalinda's IQ score?

A) 100
B) Greater than 105
C) Between 120 and 130
D) At least 120

Question 17

According to the dual process theory of cognition, people generally engage in Type 1 thinking when they:

A) make deliberate, effortful judgments and decisions.
B) need to make a rapid judgment.
C) have found that Type 2 thinking does not work on a task.
D) cannot afford to make a mistake.

Question 18

Lauren got an A on her math test, better than she expected based on her SAT math score of 500 and her C average in math courses overall. She said, "Wow, I am really getting better at math. I think I am a B math student now." Lauren has MOST likely made the thinking error of _____ while judging her math ability.

A) misuse of the availability heuristic
B) believing in the law of large numbers
C) committing the conjunction fallacy
D) ignoring regression to the mean

Question 19

People have limited cognitive resources and limited time to perform optimally on challenging decision and judgment tasks, such as estimating probabilities. In this regard, Simon (1990) described people as displaying:

A) limited capacity processing.
B) biased processing.
C) bounded rationality.
D) Type 2 thinking.

Question 20

Describing people as cognitive misers refers to the idea that people tend to:

A) conserve their cognitive resources.
B) be lazy.
C) use Type 2 thinking whenever they can.
D) not pay attention to what is important in judgment tasks.

Question 21

An instructor was interested in students' perceptions of cheating. She wanted to protect the confidentiality of their responses, so she told students to write the last two digits of their student number (from 00 to 99) in a space at the top of their form. The first question the instructor asked them was to estimate from 0% to 100% the percentage of college students they believed cheat in their course work at least once a semester. Based on the research by Ariely and his colleagues (2003), students would MOST likely:

A) insufficiently adjust their estimates based on the anchor they use.
B) use anchoring values based on their personal preferences.
C) use anchors that are based on the ideals of optimal human performance.
D) overconfidently estimate what the anchors should be.

Question 22

Two teammates on a soccer team, Lindsay and Reyha, had similar shooting averages that were better than the league average. In the semi-final championship game, Lindsay had scored especially well. At the beginning of the final game, Lindsay was again shooting very well, and the coach told the team to pass to Lindsay as much as possible because she was "hot"; however, in the last half of the game, Lindsay's shooting fell below her average, while Reyha's shooting rose above her average. The problem with the coach's advice was that the coach did not realize that:

A) Lindsay was much more likely to score than Reyha because Lindsay was having a good shooting streak that should not have been interrupted.
B) Lindsay was obviously more motivated to perform well in the tournament (she "wanted it more").
C) the girls' scores were regressing to their means, both girls' ended up with similar shooting averages and similar chances of scoring.
D) a person can not predict a player's shooting from the shooting average of the player.

Question 23

Jon read an advertisement in the college newspaper that said a college student was looking for a roommate to share an apartment. The ad encouraged students who liked to cook and keep a tidy room. Jon thought, "I'll bet the student is looking not just for any college student, but rather for a female college student. I'm not even going to check this one out." Jon's informal estimate shows he may be committing which thinking error?

A) Confirmation bias
B) Conjunction fallacy
C) Illusory correlation
D) Arguing from possibility or ignorance

Question 24

Chris received an advertisement requesting a donation for a program to help troubled youths. He was sympathetic because his own childhood had been difficult. The ad had a line with spaces to indicate the level of contribution, with the first space showing $30, followed by $60, $100, then $500 (Gold Support), and a final blank space to write in the contribution. Before Chris saw the level of contribution line, he thought, "I'll give $20"; after seeing the contribution line, he wrote in $25 instead on the blank space. Chris's decision to give the higher amount was MOST likely influenced by the:

A) representativeness heuristic.
B) availability heuristic.
C) anchoring and adjustment heuristic.
D) framing effect.

Question 25

Haru was tossing a fair coin and had gotten tails four times in a row. He said, "I think I am due to get heads on the next toss." Haru's incorrect judgment is MOST related to:

A) committing the conjunction fallacy, which is biasing his estimate of probability.
B) hindsight bias based on the outcome of the last four tosses.
C) misunderstanding randomness and independent events and using the representativeness heuristic.
D) illusory correlation and his knowledge that on the last four tosses he got the same result, leading him to experience confirmation bias.

Question 26

Suppose a graphologist believes that a person's handwriting can indicate personality traits, as when a writer makes t's or f's with a whip-like flourish indicating sadism because sadists enjoy hurting people with whips. This is an example of:

A) the use of illusory correlation and confirmation bias.
B) incorrectly applying availability in reasoning.
C) incorrectly applying representativeness in reasoning.
D) the valid personality judgments made possible by graphology.

Question 27

Judging a sick person shivering from a fever as being like a person who is shivering from the cold is using:

A) the availability heuristic in an effective way.
B) the anchoring and adjustment heuristic in an inappropriate way.
C) the representativeness heuristic in an appropriate way.
D) a homeopathic cure in a way that will likely help the person.

Question 28

Suppose an anonymous personal ad in the college newspaper describes a 19-year-old man who likes to run and enjoys competitive sports. Based on the information provided about making such judgments in this chapter, the man described is MOST likely a:

A) college student who has been on a sports team.
B) college student who is on a sports team.
C) college student.
D) college student who watches football.

Question 29

In the 1980s and 1990s, many people became concerned that Satanic cults were abducting and abusing people, although no good evidence supported this claim. Some clinicians began to conduct workshops warning other clinicians about the dangers of Satanic ritual abuse and explaining how to identify repressed memories of Satanic ritual abuse they might observe. After much media attention, some clinicians began to identify many more cases of repressed memory of Satanic ritual abuse. The MOST likely reason for this great increase is that clinicians were making judgments based on the:

A) representativeness heuristic.
B) effects of contamination in their thinking.
C) availability heuristic.
D) anchoring and adjustment heuristic.

Question 30

If someone estimates that more people die from tornadoes than from asthma each year because that person has seen a lot of media coverage of people killed by tornadoes, then that person is:

A) correct in the estimate made.
B) probably making an inaccurate estimate based on representativeness.
C) incorrect and adjusting insufficiently from the anchoring information.
D) probably making an inaccurate estimate based on availability.

Question 31

The judgment errors of the gambler's fallacy and the illusion of the "hot hand" have in common that both:

A) are errors in estimating randomness related to representativeness.
B) are errors based on hindsight bias related to availability.
C) seem plausible given what is known from probability theory.
D) depend on overconfidence and mistakes in metacognition.

Question 32

Being affected by vivid examples and recent experiences is MOST related to:

A) the representativeness heuristic.
B) the availability heuristic.
C) hindsight bias.
D) the conjunction fallacy.

Question 33

If someone estimates that more people die from plane crashes than from car accidents each year based on that person's exposure to typical media coverage of these two events, then the estimate of that person is:

A) inaccurate based on representativeness.
B) inaccurate based on availability.
C) probably incorrect based on an illusory correlation.
D) correct based on what is expected from probability theory and base rate data.

Question 34

Jared, a high school senior, was searching for colleges and found a website for a school in which all the students were well dressed in the photos. Jared said to himself, "That place looks too sophisticated for me. I want to go somewhere that is more casual," and he left the website. Jared is MOST likely:

A) engaging in after-the-fact reasoning.
B) reasoning by representativeness.
C) using the availability heuristic.
D) falling prey to hindsight bias.

Question 35

Which statement is TRUE about the popular idea about the "hair of the dog that bit you," meaning that having another drink as a good way to cure a hangover?

A) It is an example of using a nudge.
B) It has been shown to be fairly effective.
C) It is an example of using the availability heuristic.
D) It is a little like using a homeopathic cure.

Question 36

An earlier chapter discussed how when someone makes an argument, there may be greater availability of "myside" evidence-that is, reasons that support the person's favored position and contribute to confirmation bias. Which action BEST presents a strategy that is effective in debiasing confirmation bias?

A) Paying particular attention to evidence that favors one's position
B) Avoiding hindsight bias by deliberately shielding yourself from information about outcomes
C) Avoiding representativeness and superficial examination of what appears true
D) Considering the opposite or reflecting on evidence supporting the other side

Question 37

A basketball coach noticed that one of his players had sunk three 3-point shots in a row before the final shot in a game. The final shot, however, was taken and missed by a second player. For the final shot, both players were open, but the team passed the ball to the second player, who had a better shooting average than the first. The coach felt regret that he had not told the players to pass the ball to the first player, who was obviously on a shooting streak. The BEST analysis of randomness and representativeness in the game's final shot is that:

A) the coach should have encouraged the players to pass to the player with the "hot hand."
B) the player with the best shooting average should have taken the shot, as he did.
C) the coach should have advised the players to pass the ball to a new player, who was fresh from the sidelines.
D) the coach should have used the hindsight bias to recognize that the player with the "hot hand" could not make a fourth basket.

Question 38

Married for 12 years, Maria and Jose have six girls and no sons. Jose said, "I think we should try again because this next time we are bound to have a boy." Which kind of thinking error is Jose committing?

A) Neglect of base rate
B) hindsight bias
C) Conjunction fallacy
D) Gambler's fallacy

Question 39

Graphologists believe that analysis of a person's handwriting can indicate the personality and other characteristics of the person. A graphologist concludes that a person who crosses t's and f's with whip-like lines is a sadist, because sadists often enjoy hurting people with whips. That graphologist MOST likely:

A) applied the availability heuristic to arrive at a correct judgment.
B) applied the availability heuristic and arrived at an incorrect judgment.
C) reasoned by representativeness, which led to a correct judgment.
D) reasoned by representativeness, which led to an incorrect judgment.

Question 40

Jiao was one of the better players on her basketball team, making an average of 55% of her shots from the outside. Only Tonya surpassed her, with an average of 60% from the outside. Jiao had been having a great game, making the last three shots from the outside in a row. In the final seconds of a tied game, Karyme had the ball and both Jiao and Tonya were open for shots from the outside. Karyme decided to pass it to Jiao for the shot. What should Karyme have taken into account in her decision?

A) Jiao was on a shooting streak.
B) Jiao was statistically more likely to make the next shot.
C) Tonya was statistically more likely to make the next shot.
D) Jiao's shooting streak was more likely to end on the next shot.

Question 41

Natalia watched a vivid report on the local Washington, D.C., news about two murders that occurred in the city just that day. Later she was talking to Dita about gun control, and greatly overestimated the national murder rate involving guns in arguing for more regulation of firearms. To make her argument with a more accurate estimate, Natalia should have realized that:

A) the representativeness heuristic was affecting her estimate and looked for an example from another city.
B) she was anchoring her estimate to the number reported in the newscast and adjusted her estimate more.
C) her recent experiences with the vivid news stories could affect her estimate and looked for a more reliable estimate of the rate.
D) the news story was nudging her toward an inaccurate estimate, so she should not pay attention to it.

Question 42

Chris received an advertisement requesting a donation for a program to help troubled youths. He was sympathetic because his own childhood had been difficult. The ad had a line with spaces to indicate the level of contribution, with the first space showing $30, followed by $60, $100, then $500 (Gold Support), and a final blank space to write in the contribution. Before Chris saw the level of contribution line, he thought, "I'll give $20"; after seeing the contribution line, he wrote in $25 instead on the blank space. He later regretted having given more than he had first intended. To avoid giving the higher amount, Chris should have:

A) thought about other times he had contributed to charities and the amounts he had given before.
B) focused more on what he could afford and adjusted downward from the anchor provided to induce people to contribute more.
C) realized that his lack of knowledge about probability would lead him to overestimate how much he could comfortably contribute.
D) realized that the vividness of his memories of childhood would make the higher amount more available in memory.

Question 43

A fraternity considered a benefit project to help rebuild a local business that had closed due to a fire. Rico said he wondered if it was a good idea because although the business had helped several students, it was not part of the university. The president of the fraternity spoke up to strongly support the idea, along with several other members. When Rico went to speak again, another member put his finger to his lips to signal Rico not to speak. The benefit idea passed, but after the fraternity did the benefit, it was learned that the business had sold illegal drugs to students, and the fraternity received a reprimand. Which thinking error led to the bad decision?

A) False dilemma
B) Sweeping generalization
C) Groupthink
D) Conjunction fallacy

Question 44

People often lack awareness of their own biases and tend to underestimate their own bias, an effect known as the:

A) confidence-accuracy tradeoff.
B) unskilled and unaware effect.
C) overconfidence effect.
D) bias blind spot.

Question 45

After the 2013 terrorist attack at the Boston Marathon, U.S. intelligence reports revealed that the Russian government had earlier warned that one of the alleged terrorists, Tamarlan Tsarnaev, was suspected of having ties to terrorists in Chechnya. Later it was learned that Tsarnaev had visited an area of Chechnya where terrorists had been apprehended. Confiscation of his brother's computer showed visits to jihadist websites. A commentator on these events blogged that it should have been obvious to U.S. intelligence agencies that the Tsarnaev brothers were planning an attack. The blogger MOST likely committed the thinking error of:

A) Yes, because it often leads to judgment errors.
B) No, because in many cases it provides a rapid "good enough" response.
C) Yes, because it is the opposite of deliberate, rational-analytic, critical thinking.
D) No, because it helps people who are not good thinkers make decent judgments.

Question 46

Which statement is generally true about individuals' level of confidence in their judgments?

A) People are typically appropriately confident in many of the judgments they make.
B) People are typically overconfident in many of the judgments they make.
C) People are typically under-confident in many of the judgments they make.
D) People who lack knowledge or skill tend to be more under-confident.