Deck 9: Warranted Inferences

Question 1

Assume that the premise(s) of the following argument are true. Apply the other three tests of the worthiness of an argument in their proper order: "We've lost six games in a row; our luck is probably going to change today." That argument is an example of ________.
(a) a fallacy masquerading as a valid inference
(b) a fallacy masquerading as a warranted inference
(c) a fallacy of relevance
(d) a circular argument
(e) an argument that is worthy of acceptance, if the premises were in fact true

Answer 1

B

Question 2

Assume that the premise(s) of the following argument are true. Apply the other three tests of the worthiness of an argument in their proper order: "Blood samples taken from the crime scene were type AB. The accused person's blood is type AB. Therefore, the accused was at the scene of the crime." That argument is an example of ________.
(a) a fallacy masquerading as a valid inference
(b) a fallacy masquerading as a warranted inference
(c) a fallacy of relevance
(d) a circular argument
(e) an argument that is worthy of acceptance, if the premises were in fact true

Answer 2

A

Question 3

Consider this passage: "When I first heard the expression 'preponderance of evidence' I thought that it meant some maybe 80% if I had to quantify it. I learned the legal term 'preponderance of evidence' means more than 'reasonable suspicion,' 'reason to believe,' and 'substantial evidence.' But then I learned that 'preponderance of evidence' meant anything more than 50/50. Which was what, better than a coin flip? Certainly not the same as 'clear and convincing' or 'beyond a reasonable doubt' I discovered. What do you think? Should anything more than 50/50 enough to use the word 'preponderance'?" The previous passage is best described as ________.
(a) a narrative describing what a person learned
(b) a valid inference
(c) a fallacious argument masquerading as warranted
(d) a blatant misinterpretation the legal terminology

Answer 3

A

Question 4

Consider this argument offered by the assistant principal of a high school: "Fact is 99% of the time when a high school gets a bomb threat it is because some kid is not prepared to take an exam that day. Our school just received a bomb threat. So this means that one of our students is not prepared to take an exam today." That argument is an example of ________.
(a) the Gambler's Fallacy
(b) the fallacy of False Cause
(c) a valid argument. The conclusion cannot be false if the premises are true
(d) a warranted argument. The conclusion might be false even if the premises are true
(e) a demonstration of the statistical correlation between fake bomb threats and unprepared students

Question 5

Consider this argument: "The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reports that there were 30,800 motor vehicle fatalities in 2012. Of those 4,957 were motorcyclist fatalities. This means that driving or riding in a car or a truck is six times more dangerous than riding a motorcycle." That argument is an example of ________.
(a) the Gambler's Fallacy
(b) the fallacy of Playing with Numbers
(c) a fallacy of Erroneous Generalization
(d) a warranted argument
(e) a valid argument

Question 6

Assume that the premise(s) of the following argument are true. Apply the other three tests of the worthiness of an argument in their proper order: "I want to buy a boat and you want to buy a car. If we buy a car we can't use it for fishing or to go tubing. But if we buy a boat we can't use it in the city or
Anywhere else but at the lake. Either way it looks like we're stuck." That argument is an example of ________.
(a) a fallacy masquerading as a valid inference
(b) a fallacy masquerading as a warranted inference
(c) a fallacy of relevance
(d) a circular argument
(e) an argument that is worthy of acceptance, if the premises were in fact true

Question 7

Assume that the premise(s) of the following argument are true. Apply the other three tests of the worthiness of an argument in their proper order: "It is March tenth and already this year six people have ordered new glasses with plastic frames. Last year only four people had ordered plastic frames by this date. That's an increase of 50 percent. We had better stock up. It's going to be a busy year." That argument is an example of ________.
(a) a fallacy masquerading as a valid inference
(b) a fallacy masquerading as a warranted inference
(c) a fallacy of relevance
(d) a circular argument
(e) an argument that is worthy of acceptance, if the premises were in fact true

Question 8

Assume that the premise(s) of the following argument are true. Apply the other three tests of the worthiness of an argument in their proper order: "Anthony was at risk of dying from the severe fall that he took when he was climbing. Many who had the same near-fatal experience become averse to climbing afterward. So, Anthony will surely become averse to climbing after his fall." That argument is an example of ________.
(a) a fallacy masquerading as a valid inference
(b) a fallacy masquerading as a warranted inference
(c) a fallacy of relevance
(d) a circular argument
(e) an argument that is worthy of acceptance, if the premises were in fact true

Question 9

Assume that the premise(s) of the following argument are true. Apply the other three tests of the worthiness of an argument in their proper order: "Susan is John's younger sister. Linda is John's elder sister. So, Linda is Susan's elder sister." That argument is an example of ________.
(a) a fallacy masquerading as a valid inference
(b) a fallacy masquerading as a warranted inference
(c) a fallacy of relevance
(d) a circular argument
(e) an argument that is worthy of acceptance, if the premises were in fact true

Question 10

Consider this argument: "The kidnappers have taken eight people hostage and are holding them at a farmhouse just outside town. If the SWAT team assaults the farmhouse, the hostages could be killed. But if we give into the kidnappers' demands for ransom and safe passage out of the country, we'll only be encouraging more kidnappings of innocent people. What can we do?" That argument is an example of ________.
(a) the False Dilemma fallacy
(b) the fallacy of Playing with Words
(c) a fallacy of Erroneous Generalization
(d) a warranted argument
(e) a valid argument

Question 11

Why is teaching a child superstition as truth a terrible thing? For the same reason as was suggested by Hypatia of Alexandria, namely because the young mind accepts and believes them, and the person ________.
(a) then lives by those superstitions throughout life
(b) then mistrusts the authority figures who teach superstitions
(c) then is guided by the authority figures who teach superstitions
(d) only through paid and perhaps tragedy can be relieved of them years later
(e) only through joy and perhaps great effort can pass them on to future generations

Question 12

Consider this argument: "Stock today closed slightly lower on moderate trading. This was after an announcement last night that Middle Eastern oil producers were planning to increase the price of a barrel of oil by 1.5% over the next 18 months. The slide in the market was probably reacting to that announcement. Don't you agree?" That argument is an example of ________.
(a) the False Dilemma fallacy
(b) the fallacy of Playing with Words
(c) a False Cause fallacy
(d) a warranted argument
(e) a valid argument

Question 13

When the evidence indicates that two events are related by nothing more than chance we call that relationship ________.
(a) causal
(b) deterministic
(c) correlational
(d) random
(e) purposeful

Question 14

If we find an argument such that it is not possible for all of its premises to be true unless the truth of the conclusion is also highly probable, we call that argument ________.
(a) sound
(b) fallacious
(c) valid
(d) warranted
(e) circular

Question 15

With _______________________ new information can lead us to reconsider the truth of our argument's conclusion without abandoning any of its original premises.
(a) valid arguments
(b) warranted arguments
(c) false premises
(d) a tautological

Question 16

Assume that the premise(s) of the following argument are true. Apply the other three tests of the worthiness of an argument in their proper order: "But if we don't study together, then I'm not going to get through the course. And if I don't get through the course, then I'm going to ruin my GPA and lose my financial aid. So if we don't study together tonight, then I'm going to lose my financial aid." That argument is an example of ________.
(a) a fallacy masquerading as a valid inference
(b) a fallacy masquerading as a warranted inference
(c) a fallacy of relevance
(d) a circular argument
(e) an argument that is worthy of acceptance, if the premises were in fact true

Question 17

Consider this argument: "The paper showed a picture of the CEO in chains doing the perp walk as he was being led off to jail. Another middle-aged white guy with a $400 haircut! Same as Bernard Madoff, the guy who swindled $170 million out of rich people with his Ponzi scheme. All those corporate thieves are overpaid white guys." That argument is an example of ________.
(a) the Gambler's Fallacy
(b) the fallacy of False Cause
(c) a fallacy of Erroneous Generalization
(d) a warranted argument
(e) a valid argument

Question 18

Assume that the premise(s) of the following argument are true. Apply the other three tests of the worthiness of an argument in their proper order: "The Mayor has been in office for three weeks, and our city's economy has completely reversed. We are in boom times! The Mayor proudly, but humbly, accepts the credit for our town's splendid economic recovery." That argument is an example of ________.
(a) a fallacy masquerading as a valid inference
(b) a fallacy masquerading as a warranted inference
(c) a fallacy of relevance
(d) a circular argument
(e) an argument that is worthy of acceptance, if the premises were in fact true

Question 19

Assume that the premise(s) of the following argument are true. Apply the other three tests of the worthiness of an argument in their proper order: "Randolph knows that John Glenn was a senator. John Glenn was an astronaut. Therefore Randolph knows that John Glenn was an astronaut." That argument is an example of ________.
(a) a fallacy masquerading as a valid inference
(b) a fallacy masquerading as a warranted inference
(c) a fallacy of relevance
(d) a circular argument
(e) an argument that is worthy of acceptance, if the premises were in fact true

Question 20

If we can determine using statistical analysis that two different sets of events are aligned, we can call those events ________.
(a) valid
(b) a coincidence
(c) correlated
(d) causally related
(e) warranted

Question 21

At times, we make hasty and erroneous generalizations by relying on far too little information or by exaggerating the importance of one or two particular experiences.

Question 22

Playing with Numbers fallacies are arguments, which use raw numbers when percentages would present a more _____________ description, or use percentages when the raw numbers would present the more ___________ [same word] description.

Question 23

Describe how computer scoring is used to achieve the purpose of scoring written submissions. What are the risks and benefits of substituting machine scoring for human grading?

Question 24

To evaluate a probabilistic generalization we need to do more than to find one or two counterexamples. Which of the following questions should be asked when evaluating the logical strength of a probabilistic generalization?
(a) Can I think of at least three possible counterexamples?
(b) Is the generalization consistent with common sense?
(c) Were enough cases considered?
(d) What are the implications of the generalization, if it is true?

Question 25

The progression from coincidence to correlation to causal explanations marks our progress in being able to explain and to predict events.

Question 26

What assumptions humans often seem to make is the basis for the Slippery Slope Fallacy?

Question 27

Like valid arguments, warranted arguments pass the test of ______________.

Question 28

What assumption humans often seem to make is the basis for the False Cause Fallacy?

Question 29

The progression from coincidence to correlation to causal explanations marks our progress in our ________.
(a) ability to explain and to predict events
(b) environmental sustainability and economic growth
(c) community and individual wellbeing
(d) spiritual and emotional development

Question 30

To evaluate a probabilistic generalization we need to do more than to find one or two counterexamples. Which of the following questions should be asked when evaluating the logical strength of a probabilistic generalization?
(a) Was the correct group sampled?
(b) Is the generalization consistent with common sense?
(c) Was research project approved by a Human Subjects Review board?
(d) What are the implications of the generalization, if it is true?

Question 31

To evaluate a probabilistic generalization we need to do more than to find one or two counterexamples. Which of the following questions should be asked when evaluating the logical strength of a probabilistic generalization?
(a) What are the implications for me if this generalization is true?
(b) What if someone discovers additional information in the future that refutes this generalization?
(c) Was research project approved by a Human Subjects Review board?
(d) Was the sample representatively structured?

Question 32

What is the Nurses' Health Study and how can we tell that it is correlational rather than causal research?

Question 33

Called a "power analysis," the calculations social scientists make begin with a projection of the number of cases expected to fall randomly into each possible category. As a rough rule of thumb, social scientists would want at least __________ cases per possible response category.
(a) 5
(b) 10
(c) 25
(d) 50
(e) 100

Question 34

What assumptions humans often seem to make is the basis for the False Dilemma Fallacy?

Question 35

To evaluate a probabilistic generalization we need to do more than to find one or two counterexamples. Which of the following questions should be asked when evaluating the logical strength of a probabilistic generalization?
(a) What are the political repercussions if this information were made public?
(b) Were the data obtained in an effective way?
(c) Was research project approved by a Human Subjects Review board?
(d) What are the implications for me if this generalization is true?

Question 36

The expression "Post hoc, propter hoc" ("After this, because of this") is another name for the _____________ Fallacy

Question 37

If an argument's premises strongly support or justify taking the conclusion to be very probably true, then the argument is called ________.

Question 38

What assumption humans often seem to make is the basis for the Gambler's Fallacy?

Question 39

Because legal standards, like "beyond a reasonable doubt," call for an unbiased, informed, and fair-minded reasoned judgment, rather than a precise mathematical calculation, critical thinking skills and all the positive habits of mind are essential for applying the legal standards well.

Question 40

A coincidence and a correlation are really the same thing.