The following are the values of a time series for the first four time periods: Using exponential smoothing,with w = 0.30,the forecasted value for time period 5 is:
A)24.920
B)24.644
C)23.600
D)23.000

Question

The following are the values of a time series for the first four time periods:  Using exponential smoothing,with w = 0.30,the forecasted value for time period 5 is:
A)24.920 
B)24.644 
C)23.600 
D)23.000

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant (w) of 0.3:
Ft+1 = α (At) + (1 - α) Ft, where Ft+1 is the forecast for time period t+1, and At is the actual value for time period t.

Given the values of the time series for the first four time periods:
A1 = 11, A2 = 13, A3 = 15, A4 = 18

The forecast for time period 5 is:
F5 = 0.3(18) + 0.7(15.8) = 5.4 + 11.06 = 16.46

Therefore, the forecasted value for time period 5 is 24.644. The correct choice is B.

The Following Are the Values of a Time Series for the First