Many football bets include a "point-spread" so that the team that is favored needs to win by more than that amount for a "victory." The point-spreads are designed by professional odds makers with the intention that the probability of the favored team winning by the required amount is 0.50.
-The favored team won by the required amount in 7 out of 10 games. Describe how you could conduct a simulation to estimate the probability of this happening if the true proportion that the favored team won by the required amount is 0.50.
A) Observe 10 football games many many times, and calculate the proportion of times the favored team won by the required amount in 7 of these games.
B) Take 7 red cards and 3 blue cards. Shuffle the cards, then draw one card, with replacement, 10 times, and count the number of red cards. Repeat this many times, and calculate the proportion of times you observed 7 of 10 red cards.
C) Take 5 red cards and 5 blue cards. Shuffle the cards, then draw one card, with replacement, 10 times, and count the number of red cards. Repeat this many times, and calculate the proportion of times you observed 7 of 10 red cards.
D) All of the methods listed above would provide an accurate estimate of the probability.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

This method simulates the scenario where the probability of the favored team winning by the required amount is 0.50, as it uses an equal number of red and blue cards to represent the 50% chance.

Many Football Bets Include a "Point-Spread" So That the Team