Fifi and Mimi are playing a coin-flipping game. Whenever the coin lands on heads, Fifi wins $1. If tails are flipped, Mimi wins $1. For the first 20 flips, the coin has landed on heads. "Time to switch," Fifi says, believing that tails are due to win. "You have heads, and I'll take tails." After switching, the coin, once again, lands on heads. In this example, Fifi has fallen victim to _____________.
A) The illusory superiority effect
B) Optimism bias
C) The gambler's fallacy
D) The sunk cost effect
E) The representativeness heuristic

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Fifi has fallen victim to the gambler's fallacy, which is the belief that past events influence the likelihood of future events, even though the two events are independent. In this case, Fifi believes that tails are due to win because there have been 20 consecutive heads, which is incorrect because each flip is independent of the previous flip.

Fifi and Mimi Are Playing a Coin-Flipping Game