After the NCAA championship game in college basketball, Joe tells Jane that he just knew Florida would win, as indeed they did that year.Joe's assertion reflects the
A)hindsight bias
B)law of small numbers
C)gambler's fallacy
D)law of ESP

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

Joe's assertion reflects a common psychological phenomenon known as hindsight bias, in which people tend to overestimate their ability to have predicted an event after it has already occurred. In this case, Joe may have felt more confident in his prediction after the fact, even if he did not actually have strong reasons for predicting Florida would win beforehand. The other options are unlikely to accurately describe Joe's statement in this situation. The law of small numbers refers to the erroneous assumption that small samples will be representative of larger populations; the gambler's fallacy is the belief that past outcomes of random events influence future outcomes; and the law of ESP does not have any empirical support and is not a widely recognized scientific principle.

After the NCAA Championship Game in College Basketball, Joe Tells