A college student who thinks he has a high probability of gaining acceptance into a highly selective graduate program that historically accepts only 20 percent of those who apply is probably making the intuitive error in judgment specifically called
A) the framing effect.
B) the representativeness heuristic.
C) ignoring the base rate.
D) convergent thinking.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

This student is likely ignoring the base rate, which in this context is the historical acceptance rate of 20%. By overestimating his chances of acceptance, he overlooks the general statistic that applies to all applicants.

A College Student Who Thinks He Has a High Probability