Domingo is a contestant on a trivia quiz show. For every state capital he can correctly identify, he will win $1,000. However, before identifying any capitals, he must decide how many he thinks he can correctly identify. If he cannot identify as many as he has wagered, Domingo will not win any money. Suppose Domingo says that he can correctly identify 42 state capitals for a potential payoff of $42,000. According to studies of human decision-making, what is most likely to happen?
A)Domingo will be able to identify 42 state capitals and he will win $42,000.
B)Domingo will be able to identify fewer than 42 state capitals and will not win any money.
C)Domingo will not be able to identify any state capitals and will not win any money.
D)Domingo will choose to save all of the money he wins on the quiz show for his retirement.

Question

Quizplus · Accepted Answer

This scenario is an example of overconfidence bias, where individuals tend to overestimate their abilities and performance. Studies have shown that people who make such confident predictions about their abilities are often less accurate than those who are less confident in their predictions. Therefore, it is more likely that Domingo will not be able to identify all 42 state capitals and will not win any money. It is also possible that he may be able to identify some, but not all, of the capitals he wagered on, resulting in a partial payoff. However, given the scenario, the most likely outcome is option B - he will not be able to identify fewer than 42 state capitals and will not win any money.

Domingo Is a Contestant on a Trivia Quiz Show